Mass Shootings Spur Local Voter Turnout but Don’t Sway Presidential Vote Choices, Study Finds

Mass shootings can spur higher voter turnout in nearby communities, but the effect is highly localized and doesn't appear to change how people vote for president, according to new findings from researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU Law.

The study, published today in Science Advances, analyzed whether mass shootings motivate Americans to vote-and if they change whom voters support at the polls.

"Mass shootings boost turnout generally, but especially in deeply blue areas [and] without changing minds," says Kelsey Shoub, associate professor of public policy at UMass Amherst. "However, they do seem to move the needle on very specific gun-reform ballot initiatives."

Using data from the Gun Violence Archive and nearly half a billion individual voter records, Shoub and Kevin Morris, senior research fellow at the Brennan Center, built one of the most detailed datasets yet to study this question. They compared turnout in neighborhoods located within 10 miles of mass shootings that occurred shortly before or after the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

The results show mass shootings "mobilize local voters," but their effects are limited in scope. Turnout surged by up to 10 percentage points in neighborhoods located within a half mile of a shooting in the weeks before an election. However, that boost disappeared beyond about five miles, indicating that the impact of mass violence on political behavior is highly localized.