US wind turbine order intake hit a three-year high in Q2 as developers raced to hit tax credit deadlines

A flurry of activity occurred across the US wind market in Q2. Turbine order capacity reached its highest point since Q4 2023 at 2.8 gigawatts (GW), and the largest wind project the country has ever built came online in New Mexico, according to the US Wind Energy Monitor Q3 report released today by Wood Mackenzie.

With a capacity of 3.65 GW, New Mexico's massive SunZia project made up the majority of the 5 GW of onshore wind added to the US market in Q2. The spike in firm order intake is largely attributed to tax policy deadline compliance. Tax credits for qualified wind energy projects are set to expire at the end of the decade, and many developers placed wind turbine orders before July 4th to meet the start of construction deadline.

"Policy is the variable with the greatest impact on wind installations," said Wood Mackenzie analyst Tyler Gifford. "With tax credit expirations on the horizon, developers are prioritizing projects that can be operational by 2030, so the five-year onshore wind installation outlook remains stable."

Onshore activity

The US wind industry's five-year outlook remains on course, with 39 GW of onshore new-build capacity expected by 2030. More than half of the 2026-2028 project pipeline is under construction or already operating, limiting near-term risk of market decline.

Texas remains the single largest market for onshore wind over the next five years, projected to account for nearly one-quarter of additions. However, the western region dominates new capacity additions, with Colorado, New Mexico, and Wyoming expected to be the three largest markets.

In September 2026, Wood Mackenzie's repower forecast pulled back 1 GW quarter-on-quarter due to fewer repower equipment orders than anticipated. However, the 80/20 tax credit mechanism continues to incentivize fleet renewal alongside increasing opportunities from decommissioning.

Offshore activity

The wind industry's offshore outlook remains unchanged at 5 GW quarter-on-quarter, with all capacity additions expected to come online by Q4 2027. The construction pipeline continues to advance with progress on turbine installations, foundation work, and testing.

Relinquished leases continued through September, pushing cumulative federal buyouts close to $4 billion. Without stable long-term policy, offshore developers and financiers are expected to shift away from new US project development beyond 2027.

On the horizon: new building codes set to raise project costs

New building code guidelines from the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) are expected to mandate that wind turbines constructed in tornado-prone areas meet new design requirements. These requirements will increase costs for wind energy projects throughout most of the country when project sites exceed defined tornado speed thresholds and the turbines exceed defined structure exposure limits. The new guidance, ASCE 7-28, is scheduled for publication on 31 December, 2027.

"Despite policy headwinds, the wind industry continues to find a path forward and wind remains a key contributor to the country's generation portfolio through 2030," said Tyler Gifford. "The project pipeline is well positioned in the near term, and the focus now is on construction execution before the tax credit window closes."

Download the executive summary here.