Market Briefs | November 12, 2026

Rice
The steep rally in rice futures is beginning to flatten and trendline support, which is currently near $18 for January, could be challenged. A close below that trendline support would be a significantly bearish chart signal, but for now, an outside day higher charted in reaction to the November WASDE suggests that the market could challenge the contract high of $18.60½. In the report, UDSA reduced the yield estimate by 4 pounds per acre, resulting in a 100,000 hundredweight reduction in the production estimate. With no other changes in the report, that carried through to an equal reduction in ending stocks, now pegged at 39.9 million cwt. The all-rice on farm average price was pegged at $15.10, down a dime from the October report, and the long grain price was unchanged at $14. Current export demand is supportive, with sales running ahead of the previous marketing year and the five-year average.

Soybean
Soybean futures have trended lower since September, taking close to $1.50 off the market in that time frame. However, the market charted a huge upward reversal in reaction to the November WASDE. January futures closed above their 10-day moving average for the first time in a month, suggesting that the low has been put in for the time being. In the report, UDSA increased the projected yield to 53.3 bushels per acre, but that increase was below the average of pre-report estimates, sparking a bullish reaction. An increase in the export estimate of 25 million bushels and a three-million-bushel increase in the seed use estimate added to the bullish news in the report and resulted in an ending stocks estimate of 300 million bushels, down 15 million bushels from the October report. The projected on-farm price was increased by 10 cents to $12.10.

Corn
The latest USDA report delivered a bullish surprise for domestic corn, cutting U.S. production by 141 million bushels down to 15.893 billion, landing 70 million bushels below trade expectations. The national average yield was reduced by 1.6 bushels per acre to 179.6 bpa with harvested acreage unchanged. Consequently, 2026/27 U.S. ending stocks were slashed 91 million bushels to 1.758 billion, 82 million below expectations. Total domestic usage was trimmed 50 million bushels, split evenly between exports and feed use, while the average farm price fell 10 cents to $4.60 per bushel. Globally, 2026/27 ending stocks rose 1.5 MMT to 282 MMT, aligned with forecasts, as production estimates rose 2 MMT each for Argentina and Brazil. The corn market still faces technical pressure at the 20-day moving average ($4.55) for December futures, which prices had not touched since Sept. 23.

Cotton
The updated U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2026/27 reflects lower production, reduced domestic mill consumption and tighter ending stocks. Production was cut 267,000 bales to 13.18 million as the average yield fell 2% to 775 pounds per harvested acre. Forecasted domestic mill use was trimmed 100,000 bales to 1.4 million due to sluggish demand. Consequently, projected ending stocks dropped 100,000 bales to 3.70 million, bringing the stocks-to-use ratio to 27.0%, while the average farm price fell 1 cent to 76 cents/lb. Globally, ending stocks fell over 110,000 bales as production cuts in India, Turkey, Argentina and the U.S. outweighed larger harvests in China and Australia. December cotton remains in a bullish pattern, with resistance holding around the 80 cent mark.

Wheat
The WASDE update delivered a slightly bearish tone for global wheat, pushing ending stocks higher than anticipated. U.S. ending stocks rose three million bushels to 743 million, aligning with expectations. Hard Red Winter ending stocks rose 11 million bushels to 344 million, while White wheat stocks fell 10 million to 70 million. Globally, production jumped 5 MMT to 827.5 MMT, driven by 1.5 MMT increases in Argentina and Australia. This boosted global ending stocks by 5 MMT to 281 MMT, easily outpacing forecasts for a 1 MMT rise. Traders remain focused on this week's round of negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the U.S.

Beef
Cattle markets decreased during the past two weeks. USDA's five-area live steer price averaged $216.50 per hundredweight during the week ending Nov. 6, roughly $10 lower than the final week of October. Feeder cattle prices also declined, while the comprehensive boxed-beef cutout price declined to $366.62. USDA's November WASDE lowered its 2026 cattle-price forecast, citing a readily available supply of market-ready cattle during the fourth quarter. Beef production was also reduced because of slower fed-cattle marketings and lighter dressed weights, while expected imports increased. Looking ahead, lower-than-expected feedlot placements are expected to limit fed-cattle marketings during the first half of 2027.