When Republicans took the presidency, the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate in November 2024, there was much analysis pointing to the decades-long movement to the right of many Latino voters, and how this voting bloc may have tipped the scales for a Republican sweep.

However, UCLA political science professor Matt Barreto and public policy professor Gary Segura, who poll Latino voters, say that while many predicted this trend would continue and more and more Latinos would start supporting Republican candidates, the current reality is different.

In California specifically, Segura says:

"Starting back in the 1990s, the growth of the Latino vote in California turned a competitive state into a reliably Democratic one. The observed shift to the right among Latinos nationally in 2020 and 2024 did not have much effect on California, and preelection polling suggests a return to strong Democratic vote. Latinos may be key in delivering the newly drawn congressional districts to the Democrats and may well impact who makes it through the first round of the gubernatorial election."

In their piece, "The ever-evolving Latino vote is rapidly shifting away from Trump and Republicans" in The Conversation, Barreto and Segura write:

"Many Latinos are now quite upset with Trump. ... Among Latinos who actually voted for Trump, many would not do so again. Our poll suggests that 22% of Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 would not vote for him again. By contrast, Democrats retain support from 93% of their 2024 Latino voters."