Critical Questions by Mona Yacoubian

Published March 1, 2026

Following weeks of mounting tensions, the United States-together with Israel-opted for a massive attack on Iran, including Iranian leadership decapitation strikes, as well as strikes against nuclear, ballistic missile, and other military targets, signaling an ambitious U.S. goal of regime change in Iran. Iran retaliated immediately, unleashing attacks on U.S. and other targets across several countries in the region and raising prospects for a wider regional conflict with global reverberations.

Q1: What are the regional repercussions of the strikes on Iran?

A1: The regional repercussions of the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran are significant. Soon after the joint strikes, Iran launched a series of retaliatory missile and drone strikes across the region. It initially fired 40 ballistic missiles toward Israel which Israel was largely able to repel. However, nine Israelis were killed and dozens injured in a March 1 Iranian ballistic missile strike just outside Jerusalem a somber reminder that Israel's missile defense is not able to prevent all strikes. Iran also opted to go after U.S. military and Gulf civilian targets across several countries including Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar. Jordan and Iraq also reported intercepting Iranian missiles, and Oman's port at Duqm was hit by an Iranian drone strike on March 1, making it the eighth Arab country hit by Iran.

The Iranian strikes have already unleashed significant disruptions across the region. An Iranian attack damaged a terminal at the Dubai International Airport, the world's busiest air hub, while airports in Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, and Kuwait also sustained damage from Iranian strikes. Several countries have closed their airspace, and airlines have suspended travel, canceling thousands of flights and stranding tens of thousands of passengers. The simultaneous closure of the Gulf's three major air hubs-Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha-is unprecedented, with significant implications for trade and transport.

Iran has effectively closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which facilitates passage of one-fifth of global oil trade. Shipping companies have been steering clear of the area, leading to oil shipment disruptions that could provoke significant price hikes when oil markets reopen after the weekend.

Tehran's decision to retaliate immediately against civilian targets across the region-from Israel to the Gulf-highlights Iran's strategy of seeking to exact a significant toll on the United States and the region in response to the strikes. Beyond the Dubai airport, Iranian strikes have hit an apartment building in Bahrain and a hotel/shopping district in Dubai, among other places. Tehran may calculate that if it imposes a high enough cost on the region, Gulf countries will push for off-ramps and a de-escalation of the conflict. Perhaps more ominously, regime elements in Iran could decide that if the regime is on the verge of collapse, it will take the region down with it. A decision to more permanently block the Strait of Hormuz-Iran's economic lifeline-would be suicidal for Iran but also impose enormous costs on the region's energy producers.

At the same time, Gulf countries are weighing their options. Many Gulf countries have roundly condemned the Iranian strikes; Saudi Arabia termed them "blatant Iranian aggression," while the UAE called the strikes a "flagrant violation of national sovereignty." Some may be now more willing to openly allow their airspace to be used for U.S. strikes on Iran, while it remains less likely that these countries would join the fray themselves.

Q2: Will Iran's regional proxies mobilize?

A2: This appears to be a moment of truth for Iran's proxies and what remains of the "axis of resistance." Iranian proxy groups have yet to mobilize despite threats to unleash attacks in the event of renewed confrontation with Iran. Prior to the U.S. and Israeli strikes, groups such as the Yemeni Houthi militia, Lebanese Hezbollah, and Iranian-backed proxies in Iraq vowed to retaliate in support of Iran were the Islamic Republic to come under attack. While these groups did not immediately respond at the outset of the strikes, Iran's confirmation that the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei was killed could spur some to take action. In particular, the Houthis could resume attacks on Red Sea shipping where they retain the capability to launch attacks on commercial and military ships. For its part, Hezbollah-dramatically weakened from a significant Israeli offensive in 2024-had more recently signaled less willingness to retaliate on Iran's behalf. Even Khamanei's killing does not appear to have altered this calculation. Despite long-standing ties between Hezbollah partisans and the ayatollahs in Iran-many Hezbollah leaders, including the late Hassan Nasrallah, identify Ayatollah Khamanei as their marja (source of emulation) and religious leader-Hezbollah's reaction remains remarkably muted.

Q3: What are the longer-term implications?

A3: The conflict with Iran stands as a defining moment for the Middle East with generational implications for the region's trajectory, highlighting the prospect of longer-term instability. For now, the region is entering a period of unprecedented uncertainty, including instability in Iran, regional fallout from the regime's increasing desperation, and reaction to these dramatically changing circumstances from the Gulf and beyond. The U.S./Israeli strikes mark yet another tectonic shift in a region that has already been in the throes of a changing order.

The killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei underscores that Iran is entering a period of significant flux. Even if an uncontested successor is named, the country's various competing power centers likely will enter a period of intense jockeying and rivalry. And regime collapse remains a possibility, potentially sparking internal chaos and civil war in Iran, with spillover impacts that could include large-scale refugee flows to Turkey and the Gulf.

For its part, the Gulf can be expected to deepen Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) coordination on defense and security, seeking to insulate the region from Iran's continuing fallout. Over the longer term, GCC countries may move toward a more formal integrated air defense system. At this point, it is hard to imagine that the Gulf will return to the previous path of détente with Iran. With its reckless strikes, Tehran appears to have galvanized the Gulf, perhaps even providing a (possibly temporary) reprieve to the deepening tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

More broadly, the strikes on Iran and their complex repercussions stand as yet another development in the Middle East's "hinge moment." First gradually and now more rapidly, the region is amid a transformation from an old order that defined the region for the past several decades to an emerging new Middle East. These shifts began before Hamas's October 7 terror attack-itself a spoiling effort by Hamas to derail potential normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The ensuing war in Gaza then accelerated and deepened the dissolution of the prevailing regional order with a succession of developments: the decimation of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, and now the dramatic weakening and potential collapse of the Islamic Republic in Iran. Fortified by their enhanced agency, regional actors-principally Israel and the Gulf-will play a key role in shaping the contours of the Middle East's emerging order. Yet, the final shape of the new Middle East is far from certain; many more dramatic shifts lie ahead in the coming months, if not years.

Mona Yacoubian is director and senior adviser of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

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