Insight Guru Inc.
11/03/2026 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 11/03/2026 07:29
Has Buying Fair Isaac Stock’s Dips Paid Off
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Shares of Fair Isaac (FICO) fell 12.0% between the October 22 close and November 2, capping a hard year. Over the past year, the stock lost 56.4%, while the S&P 500 rose 10.3%. After a decline of this size, some investors want to buy at a lower price and others want to avoid the shares in case the selloff continues. Fair Isaac has dropped this hard before. So what happened to investors who bought Fair Isaac's past drops?
What Followed Fair Isaac Stock's Past Drops?
Fair Isaac stock traded higher a year later following four of the seven past drops with a full year behind them. Across all seven, investors saw a median gain of 45.0% after a year. The stock has recorded nine falls of more than 20% in 30 trading days since 2010. The two from 2026 remain less than a year old and are too recent to judge.
The gains and losses occurred in different years. The four gains followed drops in 2011, 2018, 2020 and 2022. During three of those periods, the S&P 500 ETF fell over the same weeks. The three losses all followed drops in 2025, when that fund was flat or rising.
Buyers also had to sit through a further fall. In the year following a typical drop, the lowest close sat 30.8% below the price on the day of the drop. The highest price of the year arrived a median 283 days after the drop, or about nine months later.
| Time after a past dip | Past dips with that much time after them | Median FICO price change |
|---|---|---|
| 21 trading days | 9 | -6.0% |
| 63 trading days | 8 | 15.0% |
| 126 trading days | 8 | 13.0% |
| 252 trading days | 7 | 45.0% |
| Dip date | FICO price change over the 30 trading days to the dip date | SPY price change over the same days | FICO price change 252 trading days after the dip date | Highest price in those 252 trading days, against the dip-date price | Calendar days to that highest price | Lowest price in those 252 trading days, against the dip-date price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | -24.7% | 4.0% | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete |
| 2026-02-03 | -24.6% | 2.0% | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete |
| 2025-08-01 | -21.7% | 4.0% | -24.0% | 36.1% | 67 | -33.2% |
| 2025-05-27 | -20.4% | 11.0% | -15.0% | 28.1% | 28 | -38.7% |
| 2025-01-21 | -20.3% | 0% | -18.0% | 16.5% | 118 | -30.8% |
| 2022-04-21 | -20.4% | 3.0% | 85.0% | 86.0% | 365 | -11.7% |
| 2020-03-09 | -22.8% | -17.0% | 45.0% | 67.0% | 283 | -32.9% |
| 2018-10-26 | -20.9% | -8.0% | 59.0% | 94.5% | 315 | -9.7% |
| 2011-09-02 | -20.9% | -12.0% | 87.0% | 92.0% | 350 | -15.0% |
| Median of 7 complete windows | - | - | 45.0% | 67.0% | 283 | -30.8% |
A dip date is the first day on which FICO was more than 20% below its price 30 trading days earlier, counted once per run of such days. Dips counted from 2010-01-01 to 2026-11-02.
Fair Isaac's Business Is Growing, With Two Complications
Fair Isaac reported a 25.7% revenue increase from a year earlier in fiscal Q3 2026, the quarter ended June 30. The company recorded a 52.1% operating margin over the twelve months to June 30, up from 45.9% a year earlier. That marks its highest twelve-month margin at any quarter end from fiscal 2016 on. At 20.1 times earnings, the stock trades below the S&P 500's 22.8.
The first complication involves the source of this growth. Management said on the July 29 call that business-to-business scores revenue rose 49%, primarily because of a higher mortgage origination score unit price. According to news reports, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency said on September 29 that VantageScore is being incorporated into mortgage pricing. On the July call, before that news, management said Fair Isaac was not seeing volume loss. The company said on October 23 that it will hold its wholesale mortgage score price at $10 for lenders enrolled in its Preferred Program.
Debt introduces a second complication. Fair Isaac held $5.6 billion in total debt at June 30, compared with $2.8 billion a year earlier. Management said a term loan issued in June funded its accelerated share repurchase, and that the company will use cash to pay down debt in the near term.
What Would A Buyer Today Have To Believe?
Buying now means betting that this drop ends like the ones from 2011 to 2022, rather than the three from 2025. From October 22 to November 2, the S&P 500 ETF fell 1.6%. Management raised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $2.53 billion on the July 29 call, even as it said mortgage originations remain below historical norms. That guidance arrived before the September 29 news on VantageScore. Fiscal 2026 ended the next day, on September 30.
Fair Isaac is expected to report again in November 2026, and its mortgage origination revenue is the number to watch.
Now You Know Fair Isaac. Here Is A Better Way To Invest
Before you decide on FICO, consider owning 30 quality companies instead of one. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105% since its September 2020 launch, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P MidCap and Russell 2000.
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Insight Guru Inc. published this content on November 03, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on November 03, 2026 at 13:29 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]