Bank Economists: Softer Credit Conditions Expected Over Next Six Months

Credit conditions are expected to weaken slightly over the next six months as inflation remains elevated and financial conditions remain restrictive, according to the American Bankers Association's latest Credit Conditions Index released today.

ABA's Credit Conditions Index examines a suite of indices derived from the quarterly outlook for credit markets produced by ABA's Economic Advisory Committee (EAC). The EAC includes chief economists from North America's largest banks. Readings above 50 indicate that, on net, bank economists expect business and household credit conditions to improve, while readings below 50 indicate an expected deterioration. The bank economists were surveyed on September 22, 2026.

The ABA Credit Conditions Index has shown signs of modest improvement this year but still indicates expected deterioration. The Headline Credit Index registered 44.7 in the third quarter of 2026. This is the seventh consecutive quarter the index has come in below the neutral threshold of 50 - signaling expectations for weak credit conditions over the next six months. In Q3 2026, the index edged down 4.1 percentage points, from 48.8 in the previous quarter, with improving consumer credit conditions offset by a weaker outlook for business credit. EAC economists currently expect moderate and consistent real GDP growth through the end of 2027, sustained by higher nonresidential fixed investment and stable consumption. They estimate a 25% probability of a recession in 2027 while the unemployment rate and wage growth are expected to remain steady through the end of the year.

"While bank economists anticipate some softness in credit conditions over the next six months, expectations have become somewhat more favorable over the course of the year" said ABA Chief Economist Sayee Srinivasan. "Despite elevated inflation and tightening monetary policy conditions, the economy is expected to remain in expansion."

For the third quarter release:

• The Headline Credit Index decreased 4.1 percentage points in Q3 2026 to 44.7, after an 11.3 point increase in the previous quarter. Credit conditions are still expected to weaken over the next six months, with an improvement in consumer credit conditions offset by a weaker outlook for business credit.
• The Consumer Credit Index rose 2.5 points to 42.5 in the third quarter, the second consecutive increase following two quarters of declines. While expectations for consumer credit quality improved slightly the index remained negative, while the outlook for consumer credit availability came in mixed, registering at the break-even level of 50 in Q3. Bankers expressed a cautious outlook for consumer lending.
• The Business Credit Index fell 10.6 points to 44.4 in the third quarter, following a 13.3-point jump in the previous quarter. The outlook for business credit quality and for business credit availability both declined into contractionary territory over the quarter, indicating negative conditions for business lending.

About the Credit Conditions Index
The ABA Credit Conditions Index is a suite of proprietary diffusion indices derived by the American Bankers Association from surveys of bank chief economists from major North American banking institutions. Since 2002, the bank economists have forecasted credit quality and availability for both businesses and consumers, indicating whether they expect conditions to improve, hold steady, or deteriorate over the ensuing six months. Readings above (below) 50 indicate that, on net, these expert business analysts expect credit market conditions to improve (deteriorate). Input from the bank economists is weighted equally in the indices. This data will remain anonymous, but historical index values are available upon request.

The CCI combines respondents' expectations for credit availability and quality over the next six months to form three diffusion indices - one headline index and two sub-indices (consumer and business). The indices are centered on 50, with higher (lower) values indicating that a net share of EAC members expect an improvement (deterioration) in credit quality or an expansion (contraction) of credit availability. The formula for the CCI is as follows:

= 50 + 50 ∗ (% ) - 50 ∗ (% )

The three indices are the Headline Credit Index, the Consumer Credit Index, and the Business Credit Index. The Consumer and Business Indices combine responses to the questions pertaining to consumer or business credit markets, while the Headline Index pools response data from all four survey questions.

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About the American Bankers Association

The American Bankers Association is the voice of the nation's $26.5 trillion banking industry, which is composed of small, regional and large banks that together employ over 2 million people, safeguard $20.7 trillion in deposits and extend $13.9 trillion in loans.