Data Centers and Warehouses Drag Down Commercial Planning

BOSTON, MA - November 6, 2026 - The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, declined 9.0% in October to 260.4 (2000=100) from the downwardly revised September reading of 286.0 Over the month, commercial planning weakened 13.4% and institutional planning fell 1.5%.

"Institutional planning edged lower but remained resilient, supporting the Index in October," said Sarah Martin, Director of Economic Research at Dodge Construction Network. "The commercial sector accounted for the large decline, driven by weaker data center and warehouse planning. Some volatility is to be expected, as data center activity fluctuates considerably from month to month, while mounting macroeconomic pressures continue to constrain other commercial sectors."

The commercial portion of the DMI was largely weighed down by slower planning for data centers, warehouses, parking garages, office buildings and hotels. Retail stores were the only sector to see growth over the month. Weaker education and religious building planning drove slightly weaker growth on the institutional portion of the DMI, despite an acceleration in planning for healthcare, public government, and recreational buildings. Year-over-year, the DMI was down 2.4% when compared to October 2025. The commercial portion of the index was down 17.6% and the institutional portion was up 33.4% over the same period. When removing data centers, the commercial segment would be down 16.6% from year-ago levels, given the surge in activity seen in late 2025.

A total of 23 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning throughout October. The largest commercial projects included $451 million Orchard Hills Data Center Campus (564 MW) in Cheyenne, Wyoming, the $368 million Centra Technology Data Center (Phase 1) in Des Moine, Iowa, and the $366 million Project Longhorn Data Center (Building 1) in Cedar Creek, Texas. The largest institutional projects to enter planning included the $336 million Green Valley Medical Campus in Fairfield, California, the $257 million Atrium Health Acute Care Building in Cornelius, North Carolina, and a $200 million life science laboratory in San Diego, California.

The DMI is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months.