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AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) stock has lost 50.7% over the past year, while the S&P 500 returned 17.1%. Selling can look like the obvious move after a fall that deep. Yet buyers continue to pay over 100 times the company's sales for the shares, compared with 3.1 times for the S&P 500. At that price, investors appear to be paying for more than the business AST SpaceMobile operates today. So what sales are buyers of AST SpaceMobile still paying for?

AST SpaceMobile Is Priced For Phone Revenue From 2027

Buyers appear to be paying mostly for a phone service that has not yet launched. AST SpaceMobile is building a space-based cellular broadband network that everyday smartphones can reach directly. The company sells through mobile network operators and has signed up more than 60 partners.

Until that service starts, the company generates revenue from other work. AST SpaceMobile took in $31.5 million during fiscal Q2 2026. The total came mainly from commercial gateway deliveries and milestones on U.S. government contracts, management said on the August 10, 2026 call. The company will only count revenue from the phone service itself once commercial service begins, which management expects in 2027.

Management has set a goal of approaching $1 billion in revenue during its first year of commercial service. The company also carries a backlog of about $1.3 billion in contracted revenue and agreements with partners and the U.S. government.

How Much Has AST SpaceMobile Sold So Far?

AST SpaceMobile recorded $115 million in sales over the twelve months ended June 30, 2026. That figure is up from $4.89 million during the twelve months before. For the whole of 2026, management expects revenue of $150 million to $200 million.

The company still spends far more than it brings in. Over the twelve months ended June 30, AST SpaceMobile posted an operating loss that equaled 410.3% of its revenue. By comparison, the S&P 500 earned an operating margin of 18.5%. Sales have grown quickly from a very small base, but AST SpaceMobile is paying to build its network well before the revenue it aims for arrives.

What Could Delay AST SpaceMobile's Revenue Plan?

Satellite launches could. Management said on the August call that its revenue plan depends on several factors. These include the successful launch and deployment of BlueBird satellites for U.S. government work, along with the contract milestones that accompany them.

Putting those satellites into orbit is expensive. In August, management forecast capital spending of about $350 million to $425 million for fiscal Q3 2026 alone, the quarter that ended in September. To help fund the effort, AST SpaceMobile sold $1.15 billion of convertible notes in July. This debt can later be converted into shares. Adding the new money to the cash held at the end of June gave the company a total of over $3.7 billion, management said.

Issuing new shares when the notes convert would leave existing stockholders with a smaller slice of the company. Investors were concerned about potential share dilution and stiff competition from SpaceX, MarketBeat wrote on September 28, 2026.

The number of BlueBird satellites in orbit will be the measure to watch at AST SpaceMobile's next report, expected around mid-November 2026. The company had 13 spacecraft in orbit at the August call.
A satellite count on track for management's target of about 45 by early 2027 would support the revenue plan buyers are paying for. A shortfall could delay the phone service, which management said can start with as few as 45 satellites in orbit.

Does This Mean You Should Act On ASTS?

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