Declining oil inventories signal continued market tightness through 2027

CALGARY, Alberta (Oct. 14, 2026) - Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, has released its latest Fundamental Edge report examining the supply, demand and inventory dynamics shaping global oil markets through 2027.

The report finds that improving crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have not reversed declining global oil inventories. EIR forecasts OECD crude and product inventories will continue to decline through year-end 2026. Against this backdrop, EIR maintains its base-case forecast for Brent crude to average $100 per barrel for the remainder of 2026 and throughout next year.

The analysis also highlights ongoing geopolitical and refining disruptions that complicate the market's ability to rebalance. With approximately 7 million barrels per day of refining capacity offline across Russia and the Middle East, EIR expects global liquids demand to grow only marginally in 2027. While higher prices are needed to encourage additional supply and constrain demand, the organization emphasizes that physical inventory levels remain a more useful indicator of market fundamentals than financial-market expectations alone.

"Oil markets remain tight as inventories decline despite improving flows through the Strait of Hormuz, while refining outages curb demand and keep Brent near $100/bbl," said Kyle Bertamini, principal analyst at EIR.

Key takeaways:

• Oil inventories continue to decline. EIR forecasts OECD crude and product inventories will continue to decline through year-end 2026, signaling continued market tightness despite recovering shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Brent remains near $100 per barrel. EIR maintains its base-case forecast for Brent to average $100/bbl for the remainder of 2026 and throughout 2027.
• Hormuz recovery remains incomplete. EIR assumes Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic increases in 2027, but remains below pre-war levels, leaving continued uncertainty around global supply availability.
• Refining constraints limit demand growth. With approximately 7 million barrels per day of refining capacity offline across Russia and the Middle East, EIR expects global liquids demand to grow only marginally in 2027.
• Physical fundamentals outweigh forward-market signals. EIR argues that inventory levels and physical supply-demand balances provide more useful insight into oil-market conditions than the forward curve, particularly amid uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts.

EIR's analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE™.

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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.