Study Finds Red State Commercial Real Estate Outperformed Blue States by Roughly 4 Percentage Points Annually

Study Finds Red State Commercial Real Estate Outperformed Blue States by Roughly 4 Percentage Points Annually

Net Equity Capital research analyzed 23,672 commercial real estate transactions across 31 states from 2015 through 2024.

AUSTIN, TX / ACCESS Newswire / October 21, 2026 / Commercial real estate in red states outperformed blue states by roughly four percentage points annually over the 2015 to 2024 study period, according to new research from Net Equity Capital.

The study analyzed 23,672 transactions across multifamily, retail, office and industrial properties in Primary, Secondary and Tertiary markets.

The thesis behind the study is straightforward: states compete for people, businesses and capital.

Tax policy, regulation, housing policy, development rules and the broader business environment can influence where households and companies choose to locate. When households and businesses move into a state, demand can follow across multifamily, retail, office and industrial real estate.

"Population growth may be more of a symptom than the cause," said Mitch Flax, CAIA, founder of Net Equity Capital. "States are competing for households, businesses and investment. We wanted to understand whether the regulatory and economic environments they create ultimately show up in commercial real estate performance."

The study found that the red-state group produced the higher total return in 10 of the 12 property type and market tier combinations examined, with multifamily and retail showing the most consistent results across market tiers.

The research also found that income has been migrating toward the red-state group and that states improving their economic-policy rankings tended to experience stronger income migration afterward.

The study does not conclude that political affiliation itself causes higher commercial real estate returns. Geography, supply, migration, economic conditions and other factors can also influence performance. The findings reflect a historical relationship between state policy environments and commercial real estate performance and do not predict future results.

Net Equity Capital has launched Red State Alpha Fund I, a private investment strategy informed by the research framework described in the study. The Fund is offered pursuant to Rule 506(c) of Regulation D and is available only to verified accredited investors who satisfy the applicable eligibility requirements.

About the Study

Red State Alpha: State Policy Regimes and Multi-Year Returns in U.S. Commercial Real Estate examines commercial real estate performance across 31 states from 2015 through 2024.

The analysis covers multifamily, retail, office and industrial properties across Primary, Secondary and Tertiary markets. Transaction data were sourced from Crexi and supplemented with public data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, IRS and Federal Housing Finance Agency.

About Net Equity Capital

Net Equity Capital is an Austin-based investment firm focused on private market opportunities and research-driven investment strategies.

Important Disclosure: This communication is for informational purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase interests in Red State Alpha Fund I. Any offering will be made solely through the Fund's confidential offering documents. The historical market data discussed above do not represent the performance of Red State Alpha Fund I and should not be viewed as indicative of future results.

The reader agrees to the provisions set forth on those certain "Disclaimers" located at https:/www.finalis.com/disclaimers and the terms thereof are incorporated by reference as though fully set forth herein, and references therein to (i) "Company" means the entity in connection with this transaction (together with its affiliates, subsidiaries, successors and assigns), (ii) "Banker" means the registered representative of Finalis Securities LLC in connection with this transaction and (iii) "Bank" means Net Equity Capital. Securities are offered through Finalis Securities, LLC member FINRA/SIPC.

Contact: (512) 354-1563

Email: [email protected]

SOURCE: Net Equity Capital

This story was originally published October 21, 2026 at 12:32 PM with the headline "Study Finds Red State Commercial Real Estate Outperformed Blue States by Roughly 4 Percentage Points Annually ."