Preliminary wheat production forecasts see modest decline

Preliminary wheat production forecasts see modest decline

FAO-AMIS' preliminary forecasts of global wheat production in 2026 point to a decline by nearly 3 percent to 810 million tonnes year-on-year, though global output is to remain above the five-year average. The expected decline is mostly driven by analysts anticipating moderate area cutbacks in response to softer crop prices and a return to more average yields following last year's highs.

Preliminary wheat forecasts emerge early in the year, and are largely based on trend yields, as well as initial area estimates in the north and planting intentions in the south. In February, the International Grains Council (IGC) expected global wheat production in 2026 to reach 824 million tonnes, down 2 percent compared to 2025. Although early estimates are subject to considerable level of uncertainty, largely due to weather variability which is a key driver of year-to-year yield fluctuations, they help gauge the likely direction and scale of annual production changes.

In the European Union, lower wheat prices led to an estimated reduction in winter wheat sowings. Although eastern and northern parts suffered from cold spells, elsewhere mostly mild and generally favourable weather, which is forecast to continue for the coming months, are likely to keep yields above average. Total wheat production is nonetheless forecast to decline slightly in 2026, remaining close to the five-year average. In the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, largely favourable planting conditions and a shift away from barley sowing underpin expectations of a slight expansion in wheat area. Combined with a projected rebound in yields after drought-affected production in 2025, the output is anticipated to return towards the average range.

In the Russian Federation, the total wheat area- predominantly winter wheat-is expected to continue its downward trend as relatively higher returns for oilseeds draw farmers away from wheat cultivation. Persistent dryness during the planting period has compounded the decline, and wheat production is forecast to fall moderately year-on-year. In Ukraine, wheat production is expected to remain broadly stable compared with last year as planted area and yield prospects currently show no significant deviations from recent levels. However, Ukraine's output is still projected to remain well below pre-conflict levels.

In the United States of America, wheat production is forecast to remain above the five-year average but to decline year-on-year. This outlook reflects reduced plantings amid softer prices during the sowing period, alongside an expected modest decrease in yields from the elevated levels of the previous year. In Canada, wheat plantings are expected to increase marginally, driven by larger soft wheat seedings. Nevertheless, assuming a return to near-average yields, total production is forecast to decline from the strong outturn recorded last year.

In India, production prospects for the 2026 wheat crop are broadly favourable. Record sowings-encouraged by government incentives-are underpinning expectations of a near-record output, although dryness and high temperatures in parts of the northern states have impaired crop development. In Pakistan, prospects for the 2026 wheat harvest are also positive. Ample irrigation supplies have supported above average vegetation conditions across key producing regions. In China (mainland), mid-February field assessments point to generally favourable crop conditions, and wheat production is expected to remain stable year on year.

In Near East Asia, early-season dryness followed by beneficial rains has created a mixed yield outlook in the Islamic Republic of Iran, where planted area is also expected to contract due to rising production costs, while a further escalation or prolongation of the conflict could hamper agricultural activities this year. In Türkiye, both an expansion in planted area and a projected recovery in yields after last year's weather-related declines are expected to support a modest increase in 2026 wheat output.

Additional details and monthly updates can be found at FAO's World Food Situation Portal.