Nigeria Cuts Crude Import Dependence as Dangote Refinery Nears Full Capacity Under Naira-for-Crude Push

Nigeria sharply reduced its dependence on imported crude oil for domestic refining in April 2026, marking another major shift in the country's downstream petroleum market as rising local refinery output, led by Dangote Refinery, increasingly reshapes fuel supply dynamics.

New data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, or NMDPRA, showed that local crude accounted for almost all feedstock supplied to domestic refineries during the month, highlighting how the government's naira-for-crude arrangement and expanding refining capacity are beginning to alter a decades-old dependence on imports.

According to the NMDPRA Fact Sheet for April 2026, domestic refineries received a total of 18.37 million barrels of crude oil during the month. Of that figure, 17.96 million barrels came from local sources, while only 410,000 barrels were imported.

The figures represent a dramatic decline in imported crude volumes compared with previous months.

Imported crude supply stood at 9.43 million barrels in March and 4.25 million barrels in February, indicating that April recorded one of the sharpest monthly reductions in external crude dependence since Nigeria accelerated efforts to supply local refineries directly with domestic production.

On a daily basis, domestic refineries received an average of 612,000 barrels per day in April, with local crude accounting for approximately 599,000 barrels per day while imports fell to just 13,700 barrels per day.

The shift is significant because Nigeria, despite being Africa's largest crude producer, historically relied heavily on imported refined products and, at times, imported crude grades to sustain limited domestic refining activity due to infrastructure failures, pipeline vandalism, and underperforming state-owned refineries.

The latest figures suggest the country is gradually reversing that model.

Dangote Refinery Dominates Domestic Supply

The strongest driver behind the improvement remains Dangote Refinery, the massive Lekki-based facility that has rapidly become the centerpiece of Nigeria's refining system.

According to the NMDPRA data, the refinery operated at an average capacity utilization rate of 99.12% in April and achieved full utilization on most days during the month.

That performance level is particularly notable given the refinery's scale and the technical challenges typically associated with ramping up mega-refining projects.

The facility received the largest share of crude supplied to domestic refiners and translated that into substantial fuel production volumes. Dangote Refinery produced an average of 53.6 million liters per day of Premium Motor Spirit, or petrol, alongside 23.6 million liters per day of diesel and 22.9 million liters per day of Aviation Turbine Kerosene, commonly known as jet fuel.

The output levels further reinforce the refinery's growing dominance within Nigeria's downstream fuel market and its expanding role in regional exports. Of the petrol produced during the month, 40.7 million liters per day were supplied to the domestic market, while 17.1 million liters daily were exported.

Diesel exports averaged 17.8 million liters daily, while jet fuel exports stood at 20.5 million liters per day.

Naira-for-Crude Policy Begins Reshaping the Market

The sharp rise in local crude utilization also points to the growing influence of the government-backed naira-for-crude framework, under which domestic refiners receive crude oil denominated in naira rather than dollars. The arrangement was introduced partly to ease pressure on Nigeria's foreign exchange reserves and stabilize domestic fuel pricing by reducing exposure to currency volatility.

The policy has become increasingly important as Nigeria continues battling persistent dollar shortages, inflationary pressures, and exchange-rate instability. By supplying local refiners with domestically produced crude in naira, the government hopes to create a more integrated domestic energy value chain capable of reducing import bills and strengthening energy security.

The April figures suggest the strategy may be gaining traction. Combined with strong refinery performance, improved local crude supply helped push Nigeria's total PMS availability to 44.4 million liters per day in April, up from 40.1 million liters daily recorded in March.

Domestic petrol supply climbed to 40.7 million liters daily while imports collapsed to just 3.7 million liters daily. The import decline matters because fuel imports have historically been one of Nigeria's largest drains on foreign exchange reserves.

For years, the country spent billions of dollars importing petrol despite being one of the world's major crude exporters, a contradiction that became symbolic of structural inefficiencies in Nigeria's energy sector.

Fuel Consumption Still Exceeds Domestic Supply

Despite the surge in local refining output, Nigeria's fuel demand still slightly outpaced supply in April.

Daily PMS consumption, measured through trucked-out volumes, averaged 51.1 million litres per day, slightly above the government's 2026 benchmark estimate of 50 million liters daily. That gap indicates Nigeria still requires some level of imported fuel or inventory drawdowns to maintain market stability, even as domestic refining capacity improves.

The NMDPRA said national fuel sufficiency averaged 18 days for PMS and 39 days for diesel during the month. While those stock levels suggest improving resilience compared with previous years marked by recurring fuel shortages, they also highlight the continued importance of maintaining a stable crude supply to refiners and avoiding disruptions within logistics and distribution networks.

Modular Refineries Expand Contribution

Beyond Dangote, smaller modular refineries also continued contributing to the domestic fuel supply.

Three operational modular facilities, WalterSmith Refinery, Edo Refinery, and Aradel Holdings, recorded varying utilization rates during April. Collectively, the modular refineries supplied an average of 0.559 million liters per day of diesel to the domestic market.

Though relatively small compared with Dangote's output, the modular refinery segment remains strategically important because it supports regional fuel availability and underlines efforts to decentralize refining activity. The government has long promoted modular refining as part of efforts to curb illegal refining, reduce fuel shortages in the Niger Delta, and stimulate domestic processing capacity.