Someone check in on the Koreans

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Good Morning,

Wall Street banks smashed earnings, inflation dropped for the first time since Covid, New York imposed a data center moratorium, SpaceX will launch a Starship test flight tomorrow, 3% of all Korean adults got margin called, and a Korean YouTube trader was stabbed by a viewer who lost money after taking his investment advice.

By now, I'm sure you've heard of Mosaic's popular deal modeling software and today they just came out with a sweet update: custom LBO Watchlists. If you're one of the many using their platform, you can now monitor public companies that fit your mandate in real time. If you're not, it's a good time to try it out!

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

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Markets

• US stocks rose yesterday as investors digested optimistic inflation data and bank earnings

• Korea's KOSPI index entered its second bear market and fifth correction this year

  • The index is still up 60% YTD

• US Treasuries were flat in Q2

  • EM bonds gained 3.7% in Q2

• UK 10Y yield topped 10% for the first time since May

Earnings

• JPMorgan posted record Q2 profit as a second-straight record haul in equities trading boosted markets revenue by 35%, while IB fees and ECM and DCM activity also surged; CEO Dimon says AI has helped JPMorgan cut 40% of jobs in certain roles (BBG)

• Goldman Sachs also smashed Q2 earnings estimates on a blowout 72% YoY surge in equities trading and 55% jump in IB fees (RT)

• Bank of America also beat Q2 earnings on record trading and a surge in IB (RT)

• Citigroup beat Q2 estimates on surging trading revenues but its stock slid as it forecast worse results in H2 due to a rise in expenses (RT)

• Wells Fargo beat Q2 estimates on strong growth in wealth management and IB (BBG)

• What we're watching this week:

  • Today: ASML, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, J&J, United Airlines

  • Thursday: TSMC, Netflix, UnitedHealth Group

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• Mbappe's empire has been overthrown

• Trade event contracts on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market

Headline Roundup

• Korean stock YouTuber was stabbed by viewer who lost money taking his investment advice (DX)

• Kevin Warsh vows to deliver price stability and 'regime change' (BBG)

• US CPI falls for first time since Covid to 3.5% YoY (CNBC)

• US to replace 20% Hormuz fee with US-Gulf investment deals (CNBC)

• Global investors are the most bullish since February (RT)

• Retail inflows hit near record highs despite call option fatigue (BBG)

• Wall Street banks smash records on stock trading boom (WSJ)

• Corporate bonds are yielding the most in years (WSJ)

• Global pension funds pull back on FX hedges as dollar woes ease (RT)

• Europe is set for the strongest earnings growth in three years (BBG)

• Leveraged chip bets backfire in Korea as biggest ETF falls 45% (BBG)

• Masayoshi Son ridicules AI critics for 'spitting upwards' (FT)

• Data center builders are racing to offload stakes worth billions (WSJ)

• New York becomes first state to impose a data center moratorium (RT)

• IBM plunged 25% in its worst day ever (CNBC)

• Small number of Nvidia chips begin shipping to China legally (BBG)

• KPMG Australia will cut hundreds of jobs and reduce partner pay (RT)

• SpaceX will launch a thirteenth Starship test flight tomorrow (WSJ)

• Boomers, not Gen Z, are the generation cutting back most on alcohol (FT)

A Message from Mosaic

Complex financial modeling, in minutes

Since 2021, Mosaic has been building proprietary, deterministic, rules-based software to help PE firms crank out complex industry-grade models in minutes.

Today, they're out with another incredible feature: LBO Watchlists. With LBO Watchlists, Mosaic now monitors public companies in real time to identify opportunities that fit your mandate, with fully-​​customizable screening criteria across returns, valuations, price action, and other fundamentals.

This is of course just an addition to their core features that make them a Wall Street favorite:

• 100% accuracy in math, accounting, logic, linking, and auditing

• The option to fully format in your firm's styles and templates

• The ability to export to Excel with dynamic, auditable formulas

• An industry-leading library of models to construct anything from integrated DCFs to 'special situations' like div recaps and earnouts

• Integrations with your existing tools like FactSet and Cap IQ

• An AI-driven ecosystem to upload and feed data by simple drag and drops

If you've ever dreaded building a financial model, you must try out Mosaic. They're already trusted by 5 of the 10 biggest PE firms for automating end-to-end modeling in minutes.

Deal Flow

M&A / Strategic

• Uber is in advanced negotiations to acquire German rival Delivery Hero for $13.7B

• India and state-run Life Insurance Corp received revised bids from Canada's Fairfax Financial and Dubai's Emirates NBD for the sale ​of a 60% stake in $10B-listed IDBI Bank

• Genesis Minerals and Vault Minerals will merge to create Australia's third-largest gold producer worth $9B a day after rival bidder Regis Resources pulled out of running

• Indonesia's Barito Renewables Energy offered to buy Philippine geothermal company Energy Development Corp. at a $5B equity value

• GCM Grosvenor Canada's IMCO will acquire a 25% stake in transport equipment leasing company TIP Group from I Squared Capital at a $4.6B valuation, including debt

• $4B-listed film studio Lionsgate is exploring a sale, with takeover interest from France's Bollore Group and Banijay

• Seidler Equity Partners is exploring the sale of its stake in Rawlings Sporting Goods at a $2B valuation, including debt

• KKR and Apax Partners made non-binding offers to acquire Portuguese packaging maker Logoplaste from Canada's OTPP for potentially $2B

• Francisco Partners is in advanced talks to acquire a controlling stake in construction software maker Command Alkon from Thoma Bravo for $1.3B

• A group of indigenous First Nations struck a deal to acquire majority ownership worth $710M in Canada's biggest LNG project

• KKR will acquire a 51% stake Global Print, the legal and tax publishing business of news media giant Thomson Reuters, for $500M

• Swedish music investment firm Pophouse Entertainment Group will take a stake in the rights of heavy metal icon Iron Maiden in a 50-50 partnership

• UK-based carbon capture startup Airhive acquired Dutch rival Carbyon

VC

• Chai Discovery, an AI-driven molecular design company, raised a $400M Series C at a $3.8B valuation led by Index Ventures

• Indian B2B e-commerce firm Udaan raised a $160M pre-IPO round

• BRINC, a public safety drone technology company, raised a $125M round led by Motorola Solutions

• Forge Nano, a semiconductor equipment and advanced materials company, raised a $97M Series D from Samsung SDI, Horizons Ventures, and others ahead of its SPAC listing

• TerraFirma, a tech-enabled, vertically integrated construction company, raised a $100M Series A led by Kleiner Perkins

• Singularity, a developer of low-cost air defense systems, raised an $80M Series A at a $400M valuation led by Khosla Ventures and Felicis

• AI enterprise banking startup Flex raised a $70M Series B at a $1.2B valuation led by Halo Fund

• State Affairs, an AI-powered policy and regulatory intelligence platform, raised $70M from Founders Fund, Khosla Ventures, and others

• InstaLILY, an AI company and creator of the AI Forward Deployed Engineer, raised a $60M Series B led by Energize Capital

• Custom AI chip design startup TYLsemi raised a $43M in early-stage funding led by Matter Venture Partners

• Feathery, an AI operating and decisioning system for financial services, raised a $30M Series A from Portage Ventures, Index Ventures, and others

• Hadrius, agentic compliance infrastructure for financial services firms, raised a $27M seed and Series A led by CRV

• Thira, a secure self-learning AI systems-of-execution startup, raised a $21M seed round led by Madrona

• Overtone, a voice- and audio-forward AI dating service, raised $18M from Match Group, FirstMark Capital, and Pace Capital

• Gridcog, an energy flexibility modelling platform, raised a $10M Series A led by ABB

• US will invest $25M in rare earths startup ​ReElement Technologies

Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable

IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• $1.3T Korea-listed Samsung is reportedly exploring a US listing

• DigitalBridge-backed data center operator Switch hired banks for an IPO that could raise $10B at an $80B valuation

• Chinese AI startup DeepSeek is preparing to file for an IPO this year; the firm is currently fundraising at a $70B valuation

• Chinese memory giant CXMT is seeking to raise $9.8B in its China IPO

• Precision engineering components maker Indo-MIM is seeking to raise $420M in a downsized India IPO

• Canadian gold miners Cadillac Mines and Amapa Minerals filed for Canada IPOs

• The power-generation unit of Argentina's state-run energy firm YPF filed for a US IPO

SPAC / SPV

• Vita Inclinata Technologies, a developer of safety and operational performance products for demanding environments, will merge with Tavia Acquisition Corp. at a $450M pre-money enterprise value

Debt

• Goldman Sachs sold $10B of investment grade bonds

• A unit of Indian conglomerate Aditya Birla lined up $1.5B of acquisition financing from Japan's MUFJ to fund its $1.8B purchase of Indian renewables firm Sprng Energy from Shell

• Data center operator GMI Cloud is seeking a $635M GPU-backed bank loan

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• EV maker Lucid is reportedly weighing going private or filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

• Brazilian cancer care group Oncoclinicas is preparing to file for an out-of-court debt restructuring

• A Dutch court ‌rejected mining giant Glencore's attempt to buy back its former logistics unit Access World Group through a private transfer to a subsidiary after opponents raised valuation concerns

Funds / Secondaries

• VC Greylock raised $1.5B for its eighteenth fund to double down on leading early-stage first checks

• European PE firm EQT raised a $600M CV for some tech startups in its first VC fund led by HarbourVest Partners

• Switzerland-based Pictet Alternative Advisors raised $255M for its first global environmental PE co-investment fund

• Spanish asset manager Bestinver Gestion will wind down its LatAm equities fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• Blockchain.com partnered with Polymarket to offer World Cup prediction markets

• Stablecoin giant Circle received approval to launch a crypto-focused bank

• Strategy's Bitcoin sales shine light on faltering crypto hoarding companies

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Exec's Picks

• Spend less time on Project_Nova_v7_final_FINAL_v3.pptx, and more time on the work that actually moves deals forward. Build client-ready slides and edit your Excel models in plain English, so you can spend less time "pls fix"-ing and more time "pls send"-ing. Learn more about AlphaSense Work Products.

• Joachim Klement shared a insightful piece on how European investors are finally warming to the stock market.

• Also, shorting isn't really that easy.

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