Arable Market Report – 12 October 2026

UK feed wheat futures, Nov-26

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, Nov-26 contract, in £/tonne

Nov-26 UK wheat futures were marginally pressured across last week.

The market broadly tracked sideways alongside Paris milling wheat futures, but with sterling strengthening against the euro, it added some pressure on the domestic market.

Nov-26 futures remain below the 20-day moving average, and momentum indicators have weakened. However, the market has not yet entered oversold territory.

The Nov-26 prices are shown by the solid line with markers in Figure 1, and the 20-day rolling average is shown by the dashed line.

Global grain markets ended mixed last week.

The US maize and wheat markets ended down. The European markets broadly ended mixed but tracked sideways week-on-week.

The mix in market momentum last week was due to the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, geopolitics, and global demand.

While the market looks generally well supplied globally, uncertainty around geopolitics continues to cause uncertainty in global price sentiment.

The main driver of market pressure was the USDA unexpectedly raising its US maize production estimate to 407.3 Mt, after increases to national yields. Further to that, beginning stocks increased following the September Grain Stocks report. Although demand was revised higher, the increase in supply was larger, pushing 2026/27 US ending stocks up to 47 Mt.

The US is now expected to produce the second-largest maize crop on record. This pressured US maize futures, which traded down by their daily limit on Friday.

The trade had expected cuts to this crop after summer heat and ongoing wet harvests.

Another driver of market sentiment has been US weather. In the last seven days, US rains have been minimal, so progress should be positive in the latest USDA crop progress report tomorrow evening. However, with rain forecast in the coming week, a slowdown in field work could be a watchpoint for markets.

Disruptions in Black Sea exports continue to underpin prices in Europe.

With minimal progress towards a complete ceasefire, the Ukrainian farm minister is seeking more alternative routes in Germany and the Baltics to increase their trade capacity. Current alternatives leave Ukrainian grain uncompetitive in the global market, due to increased logistical costs.

Looking ahead, geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin grain markets, with information and news constantly changing.

For example, the US president's surprise announcement yesterday of an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine was later followed by Russian attacks. All of which adds to volatility in commodity markets.

Diplomatic relations remain a key watchpoint for grain price movements.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

Paris rapeseed futures in £/t, May-27

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, May-27 contract, £/tonne

May-27 Paris rapeseed futures gained 0.3% in £/t last week to approx. £474/t.

The weekly rise was smaller in £/t than in euro terms because of sterling rising against the euro.

The pound rose from €1.1760 on 2 October to €1.1798 on 9 October, according to the European Central Bank.

The May-27 contract is still just below the 20-day rolling average. But it is above the 50-day rolling average, which appears to be acting as a support line.

The solid line with markers in Figure 1 shows the May-27 contract prices. The dashed line shows the 20-day rolling average, and the solid line shows the 50-day rolling average.

Market momentum is limited as prices have drifted and remain within recent ranges. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 50 on Friday, reflecting the limited momentum.

English production

Defra provisionally estimates the 2026 English wheat crop at 10.762 Mt. While this is up 253 Kt or 0.8% from last year, it is still well below the five-year average crop of 12.135 Mt.

The rise on the year for England is due to a slightly higher average yield. The 2026 average is estimated at 7.2t/ha, up 0.2t/ha from 2025, but there are large differences across England.

Defra provisionally estimates the English barley crop at 3.703 Mt in 2026, an 11% fall from 2025 and the smallest since 2011.

Winter barley output is up 2% from 2025 due to a larger area. But this is more than offset by a 23% fall in spring barley output due to a large fall area and the lowest English spring barley yield on record since 1999 at 4.6t/ha.

The English oat crop at 527 Kt is down 29% from 2025 and the smallest since 2012.

The picture is better for oilseed rape, with a provisional English crop of 1.037 Mt. This is up 43% from 2025, and the largest crop since 2022.

Get full details of the estimates on Defra's website.

Scottish areas

The Scottish government reported larger areas of wheat, oats and oilseed rape in 2026, but a sharp fall for spring barley.

The Scottish wheat area is up 6% from 2025, with oats up 3% and oilseed rape up 29%.

But the area of spring barley is down 18% from 2025 to 207 Kha and the smallest on record back to 1999.

Get full details on the Scottish Government website.

Trade data

HMRC is due to release data on UK imports and exports in August on Thursday, 15 October.

Northern Ireland

Due to insufficient quotes, we are unable to publish delivered Belfast cereals prices for 9 October 2026.