Country to Watch in 2026: France

• Commentary Europe and Global Governance
  by Massimo Nava
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Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen, respectively president and long-standing leader of the Rassemblement National, are leading in the polls. They represent the strongest parliamentary bloc, condition the survival of governments, enjoy the support of large sections of the working classes - especially young people - find backing in conservative media (the empire of financier Vincent Bolloré), attract sympathy among entrepreneurs, civil servants and even a handful of intellectuals, and are nurturing a new ruling class both within the party and at local level.

There has also been a fundamental shift in the French political landscape. For some time now, the republican barrier has collapsed - the so-called cordon sanitaire that kept the RN out of institutions and, at every electoral contest, triggered heterogeneous alliances designed to exclude it. Part of the Republicans/Gaullists has even proposed an alliance, and a small faction has gone so far as to provoke an internal split.

An irresistible rise?

What is still missing for the conquest of power, for victory in the mother of all battles - entry into the Élysée? To cover the final mile towards a goal (2027) pursued for more than two decades - suffice it to recall the Jacques Chirac/Le Pen père showdown - the numbers at the next elections clearly matter, as does the ability to devise an electoral strategy over the coming year, assuming the vote is not brought forward. But above all, what matters is securing a political and cultural legitimacy capable of reassuring the financial world, the productive classes, external observers and European allies.

In a word, the point of reference is the recent experience of the Italian right, confirming once again that Italy - from Mussolini to Berlusconi, from the Lega-Five Star government to the broad agreements under Draghi - remains a political laboratory that anticipates wider trends. Many factors seem to converge towards this outcome: the irreversible crisis of President Macron's movement, divisions on the left, the marginalisation of the Gaullist right, and the now chronic instability of a political system that has seen an impressive succession of prime ministers "burnt" by parliamentary no-confidence votes.

In recent weeks, an unexpected factor has forcefully entered the scene: the Nicolas Sarkozy factor. Written off politically after his corruption trial and arrest, he has paradoxically been resurrected on leaving prison. Perhaps buoyed by thousands of letters and messages of sympathy, the former president has issued statements that sound like a manifesto for a new right and an appeal for the unification of all right-wing forces.

A sort of "Melonisation" that touches every exposed nerve of French society and could seduce a majority: security, national values, Christian roots, all seasoned with a generous dose of sovereigntism. "The future of my political family," he said in an interview with Le Point, "depends on breaking with its comforts, its habits and part of its history - conditions sine qua non if we are to try to rebuild something new." In practical terms, this would mean granting full democratic legitimacy to the Rassemblement National, as once happened with the Communist Party.

Naturally, Sarkozy has no presidential ambitions, nor could he harbour them, but he exudes a taste for pulling the strings. Not least because within the Republicans many, especially younger members, sympathise with him.

A systemic crisis?

The victorious 2007 campaign remains a point of reference: the alliance between social issues and identity themes, the banner of security, the promise of a national "rebirth". The right, he said, must have "the broadest possible spirit of aggregation". After all, Sarkozy is also the last right-wing president to have won a presidential election. At the time, he swore that his party would never associate with "the far right". His aim was to hollow it out. But in today's France the opposite has happened: it is the RN that has hollowed out Gaullism. The expulsion of racist and antisemitic leaders, political and institutional maquillage, and attention to the business world have all contributed to its image. Financier Vincent Bolloré, in his role as media proprietor, has already put everyone in the same deck: Nicolas Sarkozy and Jordan Bardella, alongside the Islamophobic writer Éric Zemmour and the nationalist Philippe de Villiers.

Finally, it is a fact that Macron's second term has proved a calvary. France has reached the record figure of more than €3.4 trillion in debt - €50,000 per head of population. The political crisis is fuelled by party infighting and the fragmentation of a system that for decades allowed alternation between a moderate popular right and a reformist left. Combined with social and financial strains, the crisis becomes systemic. This is bad news not only for France but also for Europe, at a time when the fate of the Old Continent is threatened from East and West alike. The prospect of the country being led by an openly sovereigntist force remains the worst-case scenario - assuming, that is, that any alternatives still exist.