Moulton, Bacon, Whitesides Introduce Bipartisan Bill to Investigate Insider Trading Within the Department of Defense, Urges Prediction Markets to Crack Down on Harmful Practice

WASHINGTON D.C. - Congressmen Seth Moulton (MA-06), Don Bacon (NE-02), and George Whitesides (CA-27) introduced the bipartisan No Insider Trading on National Security Act of 2026, legislation that investigates insider trading within the Department of Defense during the war in Iran. The lawmakers introduced the bill following evidence of suspicious trades being made on prediction markets during Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela and Operation Epic Fury in Iran.

"While Trump's war of choice with Iran makes everyday life unaffordable for the American people, Trump and his associates are busy getting rich off of this war," said Rep. Moulton. "The American people deserve to know how this administration uses public announcements as opportunities for market manipulation, insider trading, and self-enrichment. This legislation is the first step towards much-needed accountability from the most corrupt administration in history."

"Profiting off of events like war and human suffering by using insider information is a blatantly corrupt and unacceptable practice that cannot be allowed to continue," said Rep. Whitesides. "We must crack down on anyone who uses private information to pad their pockets at the expense of our soldiers. This legislation will help us root out bad actors within the administration and restore sanity and trust to our government."

On prediction markets like Polymarket, the average win rate for most categories on the site is about 18 percent. For military and defense actions, that number jumps to 52 percent. One user, under the account name "MAGA-my-man," made close to $600,000 by betting on the timing of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Another group of traders placed roughly $500 million on an energy market in future oil trades. Minutes later, an announcement was made postponing strikes in Iran. In April, a U.S. Army special forces soldier was charged with making more than $400,000 betting on the ouster of Nicolas Maduro on Polymarket.

The No Insider Trading on National Security Act instructs the Department of Defense's Inspector General to investigate insider trading on both energy and prediction markets during Operation Epic Fury, assess risks posed by the potential trading, and recommend safeguards for future use.

Read the full bill text here.

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