The new playbook for effective multilayered air defence: adaptation, not escalation

By Ivor, Thales in the UK

The arms race was forged in an era of binary threats, when overmatch was measured in mass and tonnage. Today's battlespace is asymmetric, accelerated and unbounded. As faster, more fragmented, more unpredictable threats take to the skies, the idea of outpacing them simply with larger numbers of heavier munitions grows increasingly obsolete.

The concept of an arms race assumes a finish line but in an environment of evolving, multi-vector threats, that assumption no longer holds.

Relevance, not dominance, is the new measure of air superiority

On today's frontlines, a tactical advantage can expire in a matter of weeks. In Ukraine, where countermeasure cycles move fast and systems evolve in near real time, a capability that takes too long in transit may already be outdated on arrival. What matters isn't the volume of the capability, but how fast it arrives, how easily it adapts, and how well it integrates.

This is a fast-moving operational reality with far-reaching implications. Modern threats - from hypersonic glide vehicles and autonomous drone swarms, to smaller, faster loitering munitions - have shifted the ground under traditional air defence, prompting nations to invest in multilayered systems that promise comprehensive protection - a dome guarding troops from above as well as in front. In the UK's case, and as set out in its 2025 Strategic Defence Review, £1bn is being earmarked for Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD).

Whether this investment turns promise into real deterrence depends on how ready, relevant and integrated those capabilities truly are. This often means adapting what we have rather than racing to replace existing capability with the shiniest kit that could be outmanoeuvred and outgunned before they leave the production line.

Technical integration as a strategic weapon

By adapting, I mean layering resilience into existing systems and platforms by ensuring they can communicate, adapt and respond as one - helping operators do the same.

While I don't want to repeat myself, I do want to emphasise a point made in my previous article: just as no single service, government or nation can fend off the array of threats they face alone, no single product, capability or solution can hope to arm these entities with everything they need. Myriad threats require integrated, multilayered solutions which work seamlessly not only within but between Front Line Commands, across allies, domains, borders and time zones.

A NATO ally that goes beyond co-operation, to be truly integrated - capable, for instance, of firing another's missiles - is one that can respond faster, adapt on the fly, and turn interoperability into a real-time strategic advantage. In this way, agile, agnostic technical integration fosters the kind of Integrated Force outlined in the SDR's vision for 2035 - one that "deters, fights, and wins through constant innovation at wartime pace."

Better connected and better protected, allied militaries can gain a competitive edge that's out of reach of autocratic adversaries characterised by top-down, centralised control. They can exploit the imagination and experience of decision makers at every level by giving them the agility, ability and authority they need to move fast and strike first, augmented by integrated capabilities that can flex to meet any mission and be updated as the threat evolves.

Integration in action: the ACE advantage

In partnership with L3 Harris Technologies, Thales is developing an integrated short-range air defence (SHORAD) Command and Control (C2) capability.

The new capability integrates L3Harris' Target Orientated Tracking System (TOTS) into Thales' Agile C4I @ Edge (ACE) system to enhance C2 capabilities. This collects, fuses and correlates data from sensors and effectors across the battlespace, providing a common operating picture and accelerating decision making.

Cultural adaptation as an enduring, evolving edge

Such capabilities are only as valuable as their perceived utility. Without a clear idea of their role within the wider kill chain, decision makers may struggle to deploy them effectively. Without the requisite training and support, end users likely won't advocate for their adoption, instead leaving them to gather dust on the shelf in favour of what they're comfortable and familiar using.

It's why talk of effective technical integration must begin with a foreword that addresses the necessary cultural transformation: the mindsets, habits, incentives and partnerships that matter as much as the technology.

To start with, suppliers and customers must work hand in glove to foster a deeper understanding - on the part of industry - of what's needed to drive change in the right direction, at the relevant pace. The palpable sense of trust and shared intent at joint hubs like Thales' facility at Thorney Island is testament to what's possible when one closes the distance between industry and defence. Here, our engineers, including some ex-service personnel, work side by side with MoD teams: training new air defenders, refining systems and gathering feedback from live experiences to ensure every solution is grounded in operational realities.

As service wrappers go, it extends from system design and kit delivery all the way through to mission support. More broadly, it's the mindset and trust that makes a difference: availability, willingness, reliability and responsiveness on the part of industry fosters competence at the front line, continuity across operations, and a culture with backbone: confident, composed, and agile enough to evolve with the threat.

The arms race that never ends

New and emerging threats are relentlessly lapping procurement cycles. Traditional air defences are struggling to keep up with a landscape where threats multiply and adapt faster than they can be contained - where eliminating one threat leads to two more appearing in its place. Amidst it all, the imperative for the UK's Armed Forces to stay ready, responsive and relevant is both an unignorable challenge and an unambiguous aim.

It is not, thankfully, an unattainable one. What's needed is a mindset shift from periodic reinvention to continuous evolution: spiral development over wholesale replacement, cultural adaptability over rigid process and integration over isolation. The UK must not just be ready to fight tonight, but also able to adapt tomorrow with the systems and skills we already possess.