Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses

Rome - The Director-General of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), QU Dongyu, emphasized the profound impact of the ongoing crisis in the Gulf region on agrifood systems during the 180th Session of the FAO Council on Tuesday. He called for a coordinated policy response and outlined the FAO's proactive measures to address the situation.

Qu opened his remarks by stating that "peace and stability are prerequisites for food security, and that the right to food is a basic human right." He highlighted that the closure of key maritime routes is sending shockwaves through global agrifood systems, resulting in significant disruptions to global energy, fertilizer, and agrifood inputs.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical strategic corridor that, under normal conditions, carries approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day - representing one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade - as well as significant volumes of liquefied natural gas and vital fertilizers. However, following the crisis, tanker traffic through the Strait collapsed by over 90 percent, effectively closing it.

The Director-General pointed out that the fertilizer market is experiencing immediate shocks, with prices of Middle Eastern granular urea rising nearly 20 percent within a week. By mid-April, urea prices increased by 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil. An estimated 1.5 to 3 million tons of fertilizer trade per month have been delayed, jeopardizing agricultural productivity.

Impacts and responses

Qu highlighted four primary channels through which the conflict is impacting agrifood systems:

Disruption of food imports: Gulf countries rely on imports for 70 to 90 percent of their staple food supply.
Rising energy prices: These increase the cost of living and food prices at the consumer level.
Reduced farmer margins: Rising energy and fertilizer costs are squeezing farmers' profits, potentially lowering future crop yields.
Lower remittance flows: Households in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa may face income reductions due to economic pressures in Gulf economies.

"The crop calendar is central to understanding the urgency of the fertilizer crisis. Fertilizer applications must align precisely with planting windows that cannot be rescheduled without permanent yield losses," the Director-General said.

Countries heavily reliant on imports, including Bangladesh, where 53 percent of fertilizers come from the Gulf, face an extreme risk profile. Iran, with a dependency on wheat and maize imports, is under severe strain.

FAO's analysis reveals that overlapping shocks from the crisis could escalate food price inflation and deepen hunger. In Lebanon, approximately 874,000 people face acute food insecurity, while over 17 million in Yemen experience high levels of food insecurity.

Coordinated response

"A coordinated policy response is urgently needed," Qu stated, highlighting that immediate measures over the next 90 days would include: developing alternative trade routes; enhancing market monitoring; avoiding export restrictions on energy and fertilizers; and providing financial support for farmers.

In the medium-term, focus should be on diversifying import sources and supporting vulnerable countries through emergency food aid, while long-term strategies must prioritize sustainable agriculture and renewable energy investments.

In response to this crisis, the FAO has activated several lines of action:

Supply chain monitoring: Real-time surveillance of shipping movements and freight rates.
Strategic reserve coordination: Collaborating with Gulf Cooperation Council countries to prevent simultaneous panic buying.
Alternative routing analysis: Modeling alternative corridors for perishable goods.
Fertilizer access program: Prioritizing shipments to low-income, landlocked developing countries.

"We have the technical expertise; what we need now are the resources to act - in line with our mandate - before this closure has a catastrophic impact on our agrifood systems and on food security globally," the Director-General said, adding that "history judges organizations not by the crises they predicted, but by the suffering they prevented."