Global Coincident Barometer remains stable and the Leading Barometer advances in June

In June, the Coincident Global Economic Barometer remains virtually stable, rising by 0.1 point from the previous month to 103.2 points, while the Leading Global Economic Barometer rises by 0.9 point to 101.2 points. The Coincident Barometer result is driven by a negative contribution from Asia, Pacific & Africa, offset by a positive contribution from the Western Hemisphere. In the Leading Barometer, the same regions move in opposite directions, with the positive contribution from Asia, Pacific & Africa outweighing the negative contribution from the Western Hemisphere.

'While both remain slightly above average, the leading indicator has been lower than the coincident indicator for the second consecutive month. From a regional perspective, this is solely driven by sentiment in the Asia-Pacific and African regions. There, the outlook is below average, probably reflecting the consequences of the energy shortage caused by the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The economies of the Western Hemisphere, on the other hand, do not appear to be overall negatively affected by this. In fact, over the past four months, the coincident indicator for this region has increased markedly, leaving other regions, particularly Europe, behind', comments Jan-Egbert Sturm, Director of KOF Swiss Economic Instiute, the latest results.

Coincident Barometer - regions and sectors

The 0.1-point increase of the Coincident Barometer in June results from the negative contribution of 0.5 point from Asia, Pacific & Africa, while the Western Hemisphere contributes positively with 0.6 point. The Europe indicator remains stable this month. With this result, the Western Hemisphere records its highest level since April 2022 (108.0 points) and widens its gap across the regions. The Europe indicator is the only one remaining below the 100-point mark, though only marginally.

Among the coincident sector indicators, only Construction rises clearly this month; Industry rises marginally, while Economy (representing overall business and consumer evaluations), Wholesale and Retail Trade, and Services fall. Despite this only marginal increase, Industry records the highest level among the sectors and its highest level since April 2022 (104.5 points).

Leading Barometer - regions and sectors

The Leading Global Barometer rises by 0.9 point in June, with Asia, Pacific & Africa contributing with 1.6 points, while the Western Hemisphere contributes negatively with 0.7 point and Europe remains stable in the month. Despite the decrease, the Western Hemisphere maintains the highest level across the regions, at 109.4 points.

The leading sector indicators show heterogeneous developments in the month, with rises in Economy, Industry, and Services, and decreases in Construction and Wholesale and Retail trade. The Economy indicator remains below the 100-point mark, while Industry reaches its highest level since March 2025 (103.9 points).

The Global Economic Barometers

The Global Economic Barometers are a system of indicators enabling timely analysis of global economic development. They represent a collaboration between the KOF Swiss Economic Institute of the ETH Zurich in Switzerland and Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), based in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The system consists of two composite indicators, the Coincident Barometer and the Leading Barometer. The Coincident Barometer reflects the current state of economic activity, while the Leading Barometer provides a cyclical signal roughly six months ahead of current economic developments.

The two Barometers comprise the results of economic tendency surveys conducted in more than 50 countries with the aim of achieving the broadest possible global coverage. The advantages of economic tendency surveys are that their results are usually readily available and are not substantially revised after first publication.

The Coincident Barometer includes more than 1,000 different time series, while the Leading Barometer consists of over 600 time series. Cross-correlation analysis is used to decide which individual time series are included in the barometers. This involves correlating the individual time series with a reference series. The reference series used is the year-on-year growth rate of global gross domestic product (GDP). The reference series covers 10 years of data. A COVID period has been defined using a global stringency indicator, and a data window from January 2020 to March 2023 has been excluded from the reference series. A time series is only included in a Barometer if it shows a sufficiently high correlation and a suitable synchronization or lead with the reference series.

The series of the two Barometers are revised each month at publication
and are standardized to have a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of
10 for the 10-year period previous to the most recent observations.
The Global Barometers methodology is described in Klaus Abberger, Michael Graff, Aloisio Jr. Campelo, Anna Carolina Lemos Gouveia, Oliver Müller and Jan-​​​Egbert Sturm (2020), The Global Economic Barometers: Composite indicators for the world economy. KOF Working Papers, vol. 471, Zurich: KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, 2020.

Downloads and links

Download The full press release with tables and graphs (PDF, 742 KB)

More information on the Global Economic Barometers