Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
10/01/2025 | Press release | Archived content
Recent Evolutions in the Global Trade System: From Integration to Strategic Realignment
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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Content Type:Working Paper
Working Paper
Recent Evolutions in the Global Trade System: From Integration to Strategic Realignment
Airaudo, Florencia; de Soyres, Francois; Gaillard, Alexandre; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2025-10-01)
This paper analyzes recent structural transformations in the global economic system, emphasizing the increasing geopolitical fragmentation and strategic realignments driven primarily by technological competition. We focus on China's rise as a technological competitor. We introduce novel quantitative metrics such as the Export Similarity Index, the Partner Similarity Index, and the Ideal Point Distance to examine global shifts in trade patterns and sectoral competition. Our findings highlight competitive pressures in critical sectors, including machinery and advanced manufacturing, with ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-027
Working Paper
An Information-based Theory of Monopsony Power
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina (2025-09-30)
We develop a tractable model of monopsony power based on information frictions in job search. Workers and firms choose probabilistic search strategies, with information costs limiting how precisely they can target matches. Firms post wages strategically, anticipating application behavior and exploiting a first-mover advantage. The model nests both directed and random search as limiting cases and yields a closed-form wage equation that shows the effects on wage-setting power of search frictions, labor market tightness, and sorting. Wage markdowns in equilibrium arise not only from limited ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-026
Working Paper
Taxation and the Global Allocation of Intangibles
LaBelle, Jesse; Martin, Fernando M.; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2025-09-29)
We study how international tax regimes and intellectual property (IP) rights shape the global allocation of intangible assets. Using a new dataset of cross-border patent transactions, we find that tax differentials are a key determinant of intra-firm transfers within multinational companies. Stronger IP rights play a bigger role in inter-firm transactions. To interpret these patterns, we develop a model in which firms choose to license, sell, or profit-shift patents depending on tax wedges and differences in IP protection. The theory rationalizes these findings and highlights how differences ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-025
Working Paper
The St. Louis Fed DSGE Model
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2025-09-25)
This document contains a technical description of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model developed and maintained by the Research Division of the St. Louis Fed as one of its tools for forecasting and policy analysis. The St. Louis Fed model departs from an otherwise standard medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model along two main dimensions: first, it allows for household heterogeneity, in the form of workers and capitalists, who have different marginal propensities to consume (MPC). Second, it explicitly models a fiscal sector endowed with multiple spending and revenue ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-014
Working Paper
The geography of wealth: shocks, mobility, and precautionary savings
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Greaney, Brian (2025-09-25)
The spatial distribution of wealth in the United States is very heterogeneous. We study the spatial distribution of wealth in a country and how it is shaped by regional earning characteristics and mobility frictions. For this, we develop a tractable model of consumption, savings, and location choice with many regions, incomplete markets, and heterogeneous agents facing persistent and transitory income shocks. Our theory extends a workhorse macroeconomic model of consumption and savings under uncertainty to an economy with multiple labor markets and costly mobility. Despite complex spatial and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-033
Working Paper
The Implications of Labor Market Heterogeneity on Unemployment Insurance Design
Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt (2025-09-23)
We digitize state-level, time-varying unemployment insurance (UI) laws on initial eligibility, payment amounts, and payment durations, and combine them with microdata on labor market outcomes to estimate UI eligibility, take-up, and replacement rates at the individual level. We document how income and wealth levels affect unemployment risk, eligibility, take-up, and replacement rates both upon job loss and over the course of unemployment spells. We evaluate whether these empirical findings are important for shaping UI policy design using a general-equilibrium, incomplete-markets model with a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-026
Working Paper
What Does It Take? Quantifying Cross-Country Transfers in the Eurozone
Chien, YiLi; Jiang, Zhengyang; Leombroni, Matteo; Lustig, Hanno (2025-09-22)
We compute the cross-country transfers that result from unconventional monetary policy in the Eurozone. The ECB funds the expansion of its aggregate balance sheet mostly by issuing bank reserves and cash in core countries. The national central banks (NCBs) in periphery countries then borrow from the core NCBs at below-market rates to fund the asset purchases and bank lending. In addition, NCBs in the periphery lend more to their own banks at below market rates. To compute the cross-country transfers, we compare the resulting cross-country distribution of NCB income to a counterfactual ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-024
Working Paper
Japan's Debt Puzzle: Sovereign Wealth Fund from Borrowed Money
Chien, YiLi; Du, Wenxin; Lustig, Hanno (2025-09-21)
We analyze the risks associated with Japan's prolonged low-interest rate policies amid a global environment of rising rates. To finance its persistent deficits, the Japanese public sector depends on inexpensive domestic funding to invest in risky assets both domestically and internationally, effectively creating a sovereign wealth fund fueled by borrowed money. Ultimately, these risks fall on Japanese bondholders, depositors, and taxpayers. While the U.S. faces similar fiscal pressures, it is unlikely to adopt Japan's approach.
Working Papers , Paper 2025-023
Working Paper
Out-of-Sample Inference with Annual Benchmark Revisions
Goncalves, Silvia; McCracken, Michael W.; Yao, Yongxu (2025-09-11)
This paper examines the properties of out-of-sample predictability tests evaluated with real-time data subject to annual benchmark revisions. The presence of both regular and annual revisions can create time heterogeneity in the moments of the real-time forecast evaluation function, which is not compatible with the standard covariance stationarity assumption used to derive the asymptotic theory of these tests. To cover both regular and annual revisions, we replace this standard assumption with a periodic covariance stationarity assumption that allows for periodic patterns of time ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-020
Working Paper
Text as Data in Economic Analysis
Hassan, Tarek A.; Tahoun, Ahmed; Hollander, Stephan; van Lent, Laurence; Schwedeler, Markus; Kalyani, Aakash (2025-09-11)
FULL AND CORRECT ORDER OF AUTHORS: Tarek A. Hassan, Stephan Hollander, Aakash Kalyani, Laurence van Lent, Markus Schwedeler, and Ahmed Tahoun. This article discusses how to apply computational linguistics techniques to analyze largely unstructured corporate-generated text for economic analysis. As a core example, we illustrate how textual analysis of earnings conference call transcripts can provide insights into how markets and individual firms respond to economic shocks, such as a nuclear disaster or a geopolitical event: insights that often elude traditional non-text data sources. This ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-022
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A13 2 items
B4 2 items
B41 2 items
C23 2 items
C31 2 items
C60 2 items
C78 2 items
D1 2 items
D10 2 items
D11 2 items
D13 2 items
D22 2 items
D60 2 items
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E0 2 items
E27 2 items
F23 2 items
F3 2 items
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G10 2 items
G23 2 items
G34 2 items
H12 2 items
H20 2 items
H23 2 items
H27 2 items
H32 2 items
H54 2 items
H55 2 items
H73 2 items
I30 2 items
I38 2 items
J40 2 items
L22 2 items
O15 2 items
O3 2 items
O57 2 items
Q53 2 items
R53 2 items
Z0 2 items
A14 1 items
B0 1 items
B1 1 items
B2 1 items
C02 1 items
C1 1 items
C10 1 items
C18 1 items
C21 1 items
C26 1 items
C34 1 items
C43 1 items
C51 1 items
C54 1 items
C71 1 items
C8 1 items
C81 1 items
C82 1 items
D12 1 items
D51 1 items
D62 1 items
D7 1 items
D78 1 items
D86 1 items
D9 1 items
D90 1 items
E02 1 items
E25 1 items
E49 1 items
E69 1 items
F00 1 items
F02 1 items
F17 1 items
F32 1 items
F36 1 items
F37 1 items
F50 1 items
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G30 1 items
G5 1 items
H1 1 items
H22 1 items
H4 1 items
H51 1 items
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H62 1 items
H77 1 items
H8 1 items
H81 1 items
H84 1 items
H87 1 items
I1 1 items
I22 1 items
I28 1 items
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J01 1 items
J30 1 items
J38 1 items
J42 1 items
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J6 1 items
J68 1 items
J7 1 items
K10 1 items
K35 1 items
L93 1 items
M12 1 items
M50 1 items
M52 1 items
M55 1 items
N00 1 items
N10 1 items
N2 1 items
O2 1 items
O32 1 items
O38 1 items
O5 1 items
O51 1 items
P16 1 items
P23 1 items
P24 1 items
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Q54 1 items
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R0 1 items
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis published this content on October 01, 2025, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on October 06, 2025 at 03:14 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]