Öryggi á norðurslóðum. Opnunarávarp á öryggisráðstefnunni í Kiel 19. júní 2026

Excellencies, members of parliament, ladies and gentlemen, dear friends

[Stutt kveðja á þýsku til fundahaldara]

I.

And now allow me to return to English and continue by saying that as an Icelander I find the heading of this conference very fitting - Between Fresh Breeze and Cold Freeze.

One could even say this is a perfect description of an Icelandic summer!

On a more serious note, Iceland is where it is - a large volcanic island in the middle of the North-Atlantic, with Greenland to the west and Norway, the Faroe Islands and Scotland to the east.

Right there in between the two tectonic plates of America and Eurasia.

This geography also defines who we are - resilient, pragmatic, and level-headed. In fact, not so different from you here in Kiel.

In these harsh surroundings, we are blessed with various natural resources, among them geothermal energy, rich fishing grounds, and spectacular nature.

Most importantly Iceland has strong human capital which allows us to harness these resources in a sustainable manner.

This has been the basis for a diverse economy which today takes pride in high-tech companies and innovations in data and life sciences, not forgetting our vibrant culture and creative industries.

Now, you might wonder, why am I at a security conference talking about business and the economy?

This is because for companies to thrive, for the economy to prosper, and for our democracies to prevail, we need three things:

Functioning markets, peace, and security.

Unfortunately, all this is uncertain.

II.

As other speakers have outlined, we are at crossroads in international relations.

Last September, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in a speech to the General Assembly in New York:

"I think the post-Cold War order is over, but we do not yet know what the new order will look like. It will take at least five to ten years for things to settle. " (end of quote).

I tend to agree with this assessment.

When you are in the middle of a storm, you seldom realize its strength and its impact, its enormity. You put your head down; you weather the storm.

I have a feeling that if we were to meet again here in Kiel in ten years (which I hope we do), we would look back on today as a time of fundamental change.

The deliberate undermining of international law and the rules-based order is one such change, most clearly reflected in Russia´s brutal war on Ukraine.

The rise of autocracy and populist political movements is another, and this trend is often associated with alarming disrespect for human rights, democracy, and diversity.

A third major change is the ongoing shift from multilateralism to transactionalism, where even sovereign borders seem to be subject to trade.

These three changes are interlinked, and they are also flanked by rapid technological transformation.

The development of AI and other revolutionary technologies carries opportunity but also entails risks. For security, for our societies as such, and particularly for our young people.

All this represents, as earlier quoted "the end of the post-Cold War order", at the beginning of which, when the walls fell, we believed that liberal democracies, free market economy, and the rule of law would conquer in the peaceful competition of ideas.

So, ladies and gentlemen, today´s changes are happening fast, they are profound and often unpredictable.

I firmly agree with those who say that instead of trying to anticipate what will happen next, and instead of wasting energy on guessing what others will do, we should focus on what we can and must do in response.

III.

Now, let´s narrow the focus and look closer to home - to our three seas, the Baltic Sea, the North-Atlantic and the Arctic.

These three vast regions are interconnected and in them, we face the same threats and risks, both old and new.

We need to keep our seas open and safe, as transport routes for regional and global trade.

As an Icelander, I also mention sustainable fishing since particularly the North-Atlantic is a major source of food and nutrition.

We need to ensure the safety of critical undersea infrastructure such as communication cables.

They are our economic lifelines and have become targets - as we have most notably seen here in the Baltic Sea.

And we need to strategically control these regions also with respect to connecting the US and Canada with mainland Europe.

A quick look at the maps shows us that the transatlantic link literally lies across the Atlantic. If one of these areas is threatened - the others are a great risk.

Yesterday, I attended the NATO Defense Ministers meeting in Brussel, where there is a clear and growing understanding of the strategic importance of the Arctic and the North-Atlantic, not only in regional context but because it plays a crucial role for the security of the North American homeland and whole of Europe.

IV.

Dear friends,

In the North-Atlantic and the Arctic we have primarily been focusing on three things: Awareness, capabilities, and deterrence.

First, awareness.

Iceland´s strategic location in the middle of the North-Atlantic has historically been crucial to European defenses and transatlantic relations.

In the second world war, Iceland was occupied first by the UK and later by the US, which allowed allied forces to control sea routes over the Atlantic.

An interesting historical footnote is that the US´s arrival in Iceland in 1941 marked, in fact, its first involvement in WWII.

During the Cold War, based on the 1951 bilateral defense Agreement with the United States, the US Naval Air Station in Iceland was crucial for the western alliance and NATO.

This included monitoring the so-called GIUK Gap; the area ranging from Greenland to Iceland to the UK. This was at a time when Soviet submarines were frequently in northern waters.

Geography does not change and the GIUK gap is still there - as important as ever.

Situational awareness and situational understanding in the North-Atlantic and Arctic is crucial to our common security. Russia's focus on the Arctic has not diminished with the war on Ukraine, on the contrary we expect it to increase. This must be clearly reflected in allied deterrence and defence posture with NATO's enhanced vigilance activity Arctic Sentry being a solid first step.

V.

This leads me to my second point, capabilities.

As a founding member of NATO, Iceland takes pride in being a reliable ally, often described as an "unsinkable aircraft carrier".

In the Keflavik Air Base there is solid infrastructure for allied forces who are in Iceland on a rotational basis.

Iceland operates the Iceland Air Defense System which feeds information into the NATO Integrated Air and Missile Defense System which is overseen by the Allied Air Command at Ramstein.

Together, these radar systems have a coverage of 250 nautical miles and overlap one another covering an area equivalent to the size of Germany.

NATO allies have P8s regularly monitoring the area, and we are particularly grateful for the periodic air surveillance with fighter jets from various NATO partners.

There are also new formats emerging. The Maritime Security Partnership between Germany, the UK, Canada, Norway and Denmark is developing into a platform for closer cooperation in the maritime domain in North-Atlantic and Arctic as well as strategic alignment within the alliance. We welcome this initiative which we will formally be joining at the NATO summit in Ankara in July.

Here I would also like to mention the Letter of Intent that Iceland and Germany signed last October. This document allows for closer bilateral cooperation on security and defense matters in a NATO context and will allow German forces to operate seamlessly in the area.

Iceland appreciates Germany´s plans for increased presence in the North-Atlantic and the Arctic, as it will significantly contribute to allied security.

Dear Johan, Germany´s leadership and steadfast support to NATO and to transatlantic relations is highly valued. It is symbolic that Germany's new military strategy is titled "Responsibility for Europe". This acknowledges that to maintain peace and freedom for our people is a common responsibility but also that Germany is willing to take the lead among the European allies. For that we are grateful and supportive.

Iceland also has to step up and take increased responsibility. This is recognized with the new defence and security policy that was adopted unanimously in parliament in February. While we don't havearmedforces,wearedeterminedtoalignmorecloselywithNATO'soverallburden-sharingeffort.

VI.

My third and final point is deterrence.

Together, strong situational awareness and robust capabilities form credible deterrence and defence.

But the basis is our political unity, the depth of our commitments and the strength of our solidarity.

Here, the North-Atlantic Alliance remains essential.

Within NATO we are seeing increased European cooperation, which I very much welcome.

Europe needs to do more on defense and security. It is good in itself and also key to maintaining and strengthening transatlantic relations.

With other words: More Europe means stronger NATO, and this benefits every ally; the US, Canada, and us Europeans.

VII.

As you may know, Iceland is now contemplating resuming accession talks with the EU.

One of the reasons is that we see closer cooperation with the EU as means to strengthen our security and thus safeguarding the transatlantic link over to our friends and allies in the US.

It is no secret that I as Foreign Minister firmly believe Iceland´s interests are best served in being full members European Union.

But this is a big decision for a small country, and the Icelandic people will have the first word and the last say in this matter.

There will be a democratic referendum on the 29^th of August on the question if we resume the EU accession talks.

I hope Iceland will say yes - and I trust the judgement of my compatriots.

At the same time, I am worried about foreign interference in our democratic processes, as we have witnessed in other countries.

There are strong forces out there that do not want Iceland to join the EU, and they do not want the EU to succeed.

We will have to be vigilant against such campaigns.

This is in fact a common challenge, to strengthen the resilience of our societies, including democratic resilience.

This will be one of the priorities of Iceland´s upcoming chairmanship of the Council of Baltic States - which is yet another regional format that has been stepping up in recent months and years and certainly proving its worth.

VIII.

Ladies and gentlemen,

Let me conclude with a reflection on the importance of values.

Our values are neither a burden nor a weakness, as sometimes claimed.

Values are no luxury, and they are certainly not bargaining chips.

On the contrary, our respect for democracy, our adherence to the rule of law and human rights, and loyalty to freedom is our greatest strength - they give us guidance.

Our values are our compass through rough seas - amid the storm.

Thank you for your attention.