Climate Variability Emerges as Both Risk and Opportunity for the Global Energy Transition

WMO-IRENA 2024 Year in Review highlights growing impacts of climate extremes on clean power systems

Abu Dhabi, UAE / Geneva, Switzerland, 13 January 2026 - Climate variability and long-term climate change are increasingly shaping the performance and reliability of renewable energy systems worldwide, according to the WMO-IRENA 2024 Year in Review: Climate-driven Global Renewable Energy Resources and Energy Demand, released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

The report, in its third edition, finds that 2024-the warmest year on record, with global temperatures reaching around 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels-brought pronounced regional shifts in solar, wind and hydropower potential, alongside a 4% increase in climate-driven global energy demand compared with the 1991-2020 average. These climate-driven changes are occurring as global renewable energy capacity surpassed 4,400 gigawatts (GW), amplifying the interaction between climate conditions and energy systems at an unprecedented scale.

The findings underscore the urgency of integrating climate intelligence into energy planning as countries work to deliver on the COP28 UAE Consensus, which calls for tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030.

"Climate variability is no longer a background consideration for the energy sector-it is a defining operational factor," said Prof. Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General. "As renewable energy systems expand, their performance and reliability are increasingly shaped by heat extremes, rainfall variability and shifting atmospheric patterns. Integrating climate information and early warnings into energy planning is essential to build power systems that are both clean and resilient."

Climate extremes are amplifying energy system stress

Using four core energy indicators wind and solar capacity factors, a precipitation-based hydropower proxy, and a temperature-derived energy demand proxy, the analysis shows that residual El Niño conditions, record ocean heat and long-term warming produced strong regional contrasts in energy outcomes in 2024.

In Southern Africa, wind capacity factors increased by around +8 to +16% and solar by +2 to +6%, while hydropower remained below average for a third consecutive year and energy demand reached record highs. South Asia experienced deficits in wind and solar performance alongside sharply rising cooling demand, with monthly demand anomalies reaching around +16% in October. East Africa saw positive hydropower anomalies due to above-average rainfall, while parts of South America faced suppressed hydropower output and elevated demand under dry and hot conditions.

Seasonal forecasts show growing value for energy planning

For the first time, the report evaluates the skill of seasonal climate forecasts for energy indicators. Results indicate that forecasts-particularly from the ECMWF system-can successfully anticipate regional anomalies in solar energy potential and electricity demand months in advance. For example, forecasts issued in early summer 2024 correctly signaled unusually high energy demand and below-average solar performance across large parts of Africa.

These advances demonstrate how early warning information on heatwaves, rainfall shifts and large-scale climate drivers such as ENSO can support load management, reservoir operations, infrastructure scheduling and cross-border electricity trade, helping to reduce volatility in both supply and demand.

Implications for policy, investment and NDCs

As countries prepare their Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS), the report highlights the need to strengthen climate-informed energy planning by improving data and observational systems, expanding regional climate services and early warning systems, mainstreaming seasonal forecasts into decision-making, and designing climate-resilient energy targets aligned with the Paris Agreement and the COP28 Global Stocktake.

"The global energy transition is unstoppable but must be grounded in climate reality," said Francesco La Camera, Director-General of IRENA. "This report shows that understanding climate variability is critical for making smart investment decisions, strengthening energy security and ensuring that rapidly growing renewable capacity delivers reliable power under real-world climate conditions."

• By bridging meteorological science and energy planning, the WMO-IRENA 2024 Year in Review provides actionable insights to support resilient, reliable and equitable clean energy systems as renewable deployment accelerates worldwide.

Key takeaways

• Climate variability is already shaping renewable energy supply and electricity demand worldwide.

• Extreme heat is driving rapid growth in energy demand, increasing system stress.

• Hydropower is particularly exposed to rainfall variability.

• Climate-informed planning and forecasting are essential to meeting COP28 targets.

Read 2024 Year in Review: Climate-driven Global Renewable Energy Resources and Energy Demand