How Big Could Fair Isaac Stock’s Next Fall Be

Fair Isaac (FICO) stock fell 27% in the past month with no company news to explain it. Equifax and TransUnion fell more than 20% too. If you hold the shares, you may wonder what a full market shock would do to them. Fair Isaac's record in past shocks can size the next fall, but only if the company that fell then is yours. So is today's Fair Isaac the same company that fell in past shocks?

Not Quite The Same: Earning More, Owing More

Not quite. Today's Fair Isaac keeps more of each sale, but it has also borrowed heavily. Its operating margin is the share of revenue left after running costs. That margin rose every year, from 41% three years ago to 52% over the last twelve months. Revenue also grew in each of the last three fiscal years.

The borrowing came with a share buyback. In June, the company took out a $1.5 billion term loan to pay for it. Fair Isaac's debt now equals 33% of its market value, against 21% for the S&P 500. Management said it will use cash to pay down debt in the near term.

Fair Isaac's largest business, Scores, sells the credit scores lenders use. In fiscal Q3 2026, scores for new mortgages made up 62% of Scores revenue. Revenue from those mortgage scores was up 97% from a year earlier. But that growth rate had slowed, and the revenue was down from the prior quarter. Asked on that quarter's call why that growth had slowed, management put it down to a slower mortgage market as rates rose. A market shock that slows lending would reach Fair Isaac's largest business first.

How Far Has Fair Isaac Stock Fallen Before?

Fair Isaac stock fell 19.0% on average in the market shocks since 2007. The S&P 500 fell less, 15.8% over the same windows. The worst of those falls came in the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis, when the stock lost 70% against 53% for the index. The next deepest was the COVID-19 Crash of 2020. The stock fell 51% then, against 34% for the index.

Most of those falls did not last long. In the median case, the stock was back at its pre-shock high 3 months after the low. The stock has not recovered from one shock. In the 2025 US Tariff Shock it fell 14%, less than the index's 19%. The stock has fallen further since and is now 62% below its high from before that shock. Of the falls that recovered, the deepest was also the slowest.

What Repeating Its 2008-2009 Fall Would Cost You

A repeat of the 2008-2009 fall would cost you both money and time. As an example, say Fair Isaac makes up 10% of your portfolio and everything else holds flat. After a fall as deep as that one, your whole portfolio would be worth 7% less. If the stock were 20% of your portfolio, the loss would be 14%.

The wait would be long too. After 2008-2009, the stock was not back at its old high until 32 months after its low.

A repeat of 2008-2009 is a possibility, not a forecast. Of today's business, mortgage scores are the part a lending slowdown would reach first. Watch mortgage score revenue in the fiscal Q4 2026 report. If growth in that revenue keeps slowing, that part of Fair Isaac is already weaker.

How To Act On FICO?

Before you decide on FICO, consider a better choice. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has beaten the benchmark that combines the three major indices - the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking concentrated risk that comes with retail stock picking.

If you'd rather act on FICO itself:

See Your Next Steps On FICO