Extreme heat deaths could surge in Gulf if power supplies are disrupted, experts warn

A group of international climate experts are warning that disruptions to electricity supplies in the Persian Gulf could cause mass fatalities from extreme heat, as tensions rise over potential attacks on civilian infrastructure in the region.

The Gulf experiences some of the most intense heat and humidity on Earth, but large-scale heat mortality has so far been avoided due to near-universal access to reliable air conditioning.

The experts, based across King's College London, Harvard University, and Dartmouth College, say that removing that protection could be catastrophic for human health.

The group raising the alarm also includes Dr Pauline Heinrichs, from the Department of War Studies, King's College London; Dr Josh Foster, from the Centre for Human & Applied Physiological Sciences, King's College London; Dr Robert Meade, from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; and Dr Lynee Turek, from the Department of Earth Sciences at Dartmouth College.

The warnings come amid escalating rhetoric from the United States and Iran, including threats that could extend to energy and water infrastructure. Analysts say such systems are already vulnerable, particularly as summer approaches.

Recent events have highlighted the scale of the risk. During the 2024 Hajj pilgrimage, more than 1,300 people died in six days from heat exposure near the Red Sea, which is cooler than much of the Gulf.

In other regions, prolonged heatwaves with limited access to cooling have killed more than 50,000 people in single events.

"Around the Persian Gulf, temperatures are often even higher," Dr Matthews said. "These environments operate very close to the limits of human tolerance. Once cooling is lost, lethal heat stress can emerge within hours."

Countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have some of the world's most reliable power systems, but scientists warn that any successful attack or prolonged outage could expose millions to extreme conditions during peak summer heat.

Health systems could be quickly overwhelmed. During the 2021 heatwave in the north-western United States, emergency department visits for heat illness rose by nearly a factor of 70. Similar or larger surges could occur in the Gulf, experts say.

"Healthcare systems are not designed to manage sudden, mass heat exposure," said Dr Meade. "Once emergency services are stretched beyond capacity, mortality can rise very rapidly."

Power failures could also disrupt cooling for medicines, vaccines and food supplies, creating secondary health crises. Experts warn that such knock-on effects are difficult to predict but could significantly increase overall harm.

Vulnerable groups, including women and migrant workers, already bear the greatest health impacts from extreme heat, and they would likely face disproportionate risks if air conditioning becomes more limited.

"In extreme heat and humidity, survival can be measured in hours," said Dr Foster. "This risk needs to be understood now, before decisions are taken that could have irreversible consequences."

The consequences would not be confined to the region. Disruptions to Gulf oil and gas exports could worsen fuel shortages in other hot, densely populated countries that rely heavily on electricity for cooling. Emergency energy measures have already been introduced in parts of South and South-East Asia.

"The extreme risk to lives and livelihoods inherent to latent heat risks demonstrates that risks in a warming world are always compounded, systemic and extreme," says Dr Heinrichs. "Wars exacerbate these risks. We need to get back to a security strategy that reflects this reality and protects people and the environment as a first order priority."