DealMakersQ2 2026⟶

Download this issue: DealMakers^Q2 2026

The Great Divide: Record Highs Meet Decade Lows

Global aggregate deal value for the first half of the year was over $3 trillion, putting 2026 on track to have by far the largest aggregate deal value ever (possibly excluding the 2021 post-pandemic spike).

The increase in aggregate deal value is being driven by megadeals (deals valued over $5 billion), which surged last year and have increased by 40% year over year. Notably, if megadeals are excluded from the first half's aggregate deal value, the annualized aggregate deal value drops by half and is roughly on par with annual activity ex-megadeals in recent years. In 2024, megadeals represented about 25% of overall deal value, rather than the current roughly 50%.

At the same time, however, deal volume during the first half, annualized, is the lowest in a decade - about 43,000 deals, which is down about 13% from volumes in the last two years, and down more significantly from deal volumes in every other year over the last decade.

The United States has accounted for more than half of the global aggregate deal value so far in 2026, but less than 30% of global deal volume - reflecting the large share of US megadeals (which accounted for 64% of total US deal value in 2026, up from 54% in 2025). Megadeals continue to be concentrated in the technology and energy sectors, as the largest corporations ramp up their AI infrastructure, including data centers and energy supply. Beyond the megadeals and other traditional M&A, enormous amounts of capital are being expended on AI-related infrastructure through joint ventures, minority interests and other non-traditional M&A transactions.

As we move into the second half of the year, the headwinds that have not hampered supersized companies from doing supersized strategic deals likely will continue to hamper other deal activity. Major issues include geopolitical uncertainties, unstable energy supply, trade disruptions, continued inflation, still-high interest rates, slow growth and AI-related valuation concerns.

Private equity continues to be a force in dealmaking but with ongoing challenges. Uncommitted capital remains at record levels, but the exit backlog is essentially unchanged from year-end 2025 - with an exception in the United Kingdom seeing a notable increase in sponsor exit activity this year - and the average age of portfolio companies is now more than five years for over a third of PortCos, up from a quarter in 2025. Private equity firms continue their recent trend of using continuation funds to provide liquidity, but these vehicles may face increased regulatory scrutiny going forward. Private credit is still playing a strong role in dealmaking, but there has been an increase in borrower defaults, redemption requests and regulatory scrutiny.

Heading into H2 2026, there appears to be growing momentum and general optimism for the M&A market to continue its overall upward trend, albeit driven primarily by megadeals.

_{Based on DataPoint data, PwC 2026 mid-year outlook (6/23/26) and PitchBook UK Exit Market: Dearth or Revival? (6/11/26)}

Top Five Deals Announced

Reflect strong deal activity in media, energy and technology/AI industries.

1. NextEra Energy / Dominion Energy - $67B

A transformative combination bringing together two major US energy players in one of the quarter's headline-making transactions.

2. Space X / Cursor - $60B

SpaceX struck a high-profile deal to acquire Anysphere, the company behind Cursor, underscoring the accelerating convergence of AI and next-gen technology.

3. Equity Residential / AvalonBay Communities - $25B

A landmark all-stock merger of equals, creating a standout combination in the residential real estate sector.

4. Kone Oyj / TK Elevator - $24B

Finland's Kone agreed to acquire German rival TK Elevator from Advent International and Cinven, a strategic deal set to strengthen its position in the global vertical transportation market.

5. Fox Corp / Roku - $22B

Fox Corp agreed to acquire Roku in a high-profile transaction that underscores the continued convergence of media, content and streaming platforms.

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