Pump price increases ease in the EU, but not elsewhere

On 8 May 2026, Brent crude is trading around USD 100 a barrel, around 20% lower than a week ago. Diesel pump prices in the EU are easing on the back of the crude unwind and five fiscal packages all simultaneously in force for the first time since the war in Iran. Here is the latest overview for the road transport sector.

• US national average diesel price reached USD 1.50 per litre on 7 May, up around 47% since 27 February
• EU weighted average diesel price is at EUR 1.995 per litre, according to IRU fuel prices service data, down 1.2% from EUR 2.019 a week earlier
• First time since the start of the crisis that the five largest national fiscal packages (in Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and Sweden) are simultaneously in force in the EU
• Global urea prices remain above USD 617 per tonne, around 32% above the 27 February baseline
• Dutch TTF natural gas eased from the EUR 46.41 per MWh peak on 13 April to settle around EUR 44 per MWh on 7 May

Brent crude was trading at USD 100 a barrel on the morning of 8 May, down from USD 120 a week ago and reaching as low as USD 96 during the week. The benchmark is now down around 17% week on week. WTI is tracking USD 95 a barrel.

ING's late-April update sees Brent averaging USD 92 a barrel in Q4 2026, assuming Strait of Hormuz flows slowly resume from May or June. However, JP Morgan continues to warn of an upside risk towards USD 150 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut into mid-May.

On the European supply side, the Druzhba pipeline's southern leg is holding stable into its sixteenth day since the 23 April Slovak restart, with the energy companies MOL and Slovnaft confirming receipts in line with the 119,000-tonne end-April scheduled commitment.

The European Commission's estimate of additional EU fossil-import costs since the start of the conflict has been revised up to EUR 24 billion.

Seven OPEC+ countries announced this week that they will keep the per-country pace of production increases unchanged from May to June.

The headline figure fell from 206,000 to 188,000 barrels per day. This was purely because the UAE, which had contributed about 18,000 barrels per day to the previous monthly increase, formally left OPEC on 1 May.

Pump prices

The US national average diesel price reached USD 1.50 per litre on 7 May, up around 47% since 27 February.

The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed slightly from last week and now sits around USD 5 a barrel, with US domestic crude continuing to pull into refinery runs to partly offset Middle East shortfalls.

In the EU, the weighted average diesel price stood at EUR 1.995 per litre, according to IRU fuel prices service data, down 1.2% from EUR 2.019 a week earlier.

The cheapest EU pump prices remain in Malta (EUR 1.210 per litre, unchanged due to its regulated price structure), Poland (1.692) and Croatia (1.724); the most expensive are still in the Netherlands (EUR 2.383 per litre), Finland (2.316), and Denmark (2.299).

Most of the price decreases came from tax relief, notably in Germany. Friday 1 May produced the most concentrated package of national tax cuts of the crisis to date.

• Germany - the EUR 0.14 per litre cut on diesel excise duty came into force on 1 May, running through 30 June. The measure costs the federal budget EUR 1.6 billion and is paired with the "one-price-increase-per-day" retail rule in force since 1 April.
• Italy - the Council of Ministers ruled on 30 April to keep the EUR 0.20 per litre excise cut on diesel until 22 May.
• Sweden - the diesel energy tax is reduced by SEK 319 per cubic metre (around 0.40 SEK per litre including VAT). On Tuesday, the European Commission gave Sweden the green light to cut fuel taxes by SEK 2.4 per litre, bringing them below the EU's minimum level. In its draft approval, the Commission states that the reduction may apply for only five months. The proposal must now be approved by the Council of Ministers.
• Poland - Ministry of Finance regulations published on 27 April extended the reduced 8% VAT and the EU-minimum excise on motor fuels to 15 May. The PLN 7.60 per litre diesel cap is unchanged, and the option to push the cap to 30 June remains available.
• Hungary - the HUF 615 per litre diesel cap for Hungarian trucks was extended through May. • Austria - the EUR 0.5 per litre excise reduction on petrol and diesel has been renewed for May.
• Slovakia - the government decided on 6 May to scrap both the foreign-plate diesel surcharge and the single-tank-per-vehicle restriction, with effect from 8 May.
• France -TotalEnergies has anchored its voluntary pump cap at EUR 2.25 in May and EUR 2.09 per litre on diesel for the 8 to 11 May Ascension long weekend across 3,300 stations. The tanker-circulation derogation runs to 11 May.
• Greece - the EUR 0.20 per litre diesel pump subsidy was formally extended through May on 27 April.
• Czechia - the maximum diesel price of around CZK 44.68 per litre and a CZK 3.00 per litre retail margin cap remain in force.

In Türkiye, diesel prices are slightly up, passing from TRY 73.21 to 73.30 per litre on average week on week and remain up around 18% in Turkish lira since 27 February. Türkiye's special sliding-scale mechanism, activated after the early-March Hormuz closure, automatically absorbs 75% of any refinery-exit price or exchange-rate increase through ÖTV (a consumption tax levied on specific products) cuts. The mechanism is bounded by the 2 March 2026 ÖTV level. Any sustained move above that benchmark cannot be offset by further tax reductions.

In China, diesel is around 28% above the pre-war baseline. Beijing continues to prioritise domestic supply over state-owned refiner margins. Export restrictions on refined products are still in place. Around 57% of Chinese crude imports come from the Middle East.

In India, government-administered pricing has held diesel close to pre-war levels. A US Treasury waiver continues to allow Iranian crude imports via the Chabahar transit route. Export taxes on refined diesel and jet fuel also remain in force to lock supply into the domestic market.

In Brazil, retail diesel is at BRL 7.1 per litre on average this week, up 17% on the BRL 6.08 baseline of 27 February. The Brazilian Association of Fuel Importers' 5 May reading of refinery-gate diesel was at a 31% discount to international parity, an arbitrage gap that explains why the National Petroleum Agency extended the special regime allowing distribution-side operations below Resolution 949/2023 minimum stocks to 30 June. Petrobras has confirmed it will not import diesel in May, relying on domestic refinery output despite the 31% domestic-vs-international price gap.

In Mexico, retail diesel is on average at MXN 27.848 per litre, a 1% decrease since last week. The IEPS stimulus for the week of 2 to 8 May stands at 60.76% on diesel, the next reset will be published later today (Friday 8 May) for the week of 9 to 15 May.

AdBlue remains the secondary pressure point. Global urea prices remain above USD 617 per tonne, around 32% above the 27 February baseline. While AdBlue accounts for less than 1% of the total cost of operations for a heavy-goods vehicle, shortages would be catastrophic for operators given its mandatory use on modern diesel fleets.

Natural gas

Dutch TTF natural gas tracked the Brent unwind through the week, easing from the EUR 46.41 per MWh peak on 13 April to settle around EUR 44 per MWh on 7 May, roughly 38% above the EUR 32 baseline of 27 February.

Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility, the world's largest, remains under force majeure following the early-March disruption. Approximately 17% of Qatar's total LNG capacity is currently offline, with full restoration not expected before August 2026 at the earliest. Industry analysts caution that some of the damage could take three to five years to repair.

EU gas storage stands at around 34% full at the start of the injection season, the weakest starting position in at least four years.

The Netherlands remains the lowest in the EU at well below 11%, followed by Sweden, Croatia, Germany and Slovakia.

Goldman Sachs flagged in a 2 April note that European TTF is underpricing the LNG supply-disruption risk through the Strait of Hormuz, with prices potentially testing EUR 75-100 per MWh if the shock persisted beyond April. In a more granular scenario, Goldman estimated that a one-month full halt of Strait of Hormuz LNG flows would lift TTF to around EUR 74 per MWh, while a halt lasting more than two months would push prices above EUR 100.

With the Strait of Hormuz is still disrupted into May and TTF around EUR 44 per MWh, the market has not so far priced the bank's stress scenario, in part thanks to weak Asian demand and continued LNG imports from non-Persian-Gulf sources.

Road transport impact

For EU road transport operators, this week marks the first time since the start of the crisis that the five largest national fiscal packages (in Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and Sweden) are simultaneously in force. The combined effect produced a measurable easing of pump prices on top of the broader Brent-driven decline.

Slovakia's decision to scrap the foreign-plate diesel surcharge from today removes the only intra-EU dual-pricing regime activated since the start of the crisis, and re-opens cross-border refuelling arbitrage from Hungary, Czechia and Austria into Slovakia. For international operators, the practical effect is that the EUR 0.15 to EUR 0.25 per litre penalty that had applied to foreign plates since 27 March disappears overnight.

Australia remains the most advanced physical-shortage case among developed-country markets. Reserves are stabilising at around 30 days of diesel cover; around 120 stations, or roughly 1.5% of national outlets, are reporting intermittent diesel outages, mostly concentrated in outback Queensland, Far North New South Wales and the Northern Territory. The energy minister explicitly ruled out rationing on 6 May.

As the war enters a standstill in its tenth week, transport operators remain uncertain about fuel price dynamics. Even if a peace deal were reached, damaged infrastructure and weakened investor and insurer confidence mean there is no quick return to normal.

With one fifth of the global oil supply still on hold, other oil producers cannot quickly compensate by increasing production. The supply-demand balance is therefore being maintained either through demand destruction, as diesel becomes too expensive, or by drawing on stockpiles, which is only a temporary solution.

The only certainty is that fuel prices will remain elevated throughout 2026.