The Regional Impacts of the War in Ukraine on Russia and Their Implications for the Security Environment

This research bulletin examines the effects of the war in Ukraine within Russia from a regional perspective and explores how these impacts are reflected in the security of Northern Europe.

Since Russia launched its full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, experts and analysts on Russia have debated the war's consequences for Russian society. Will the economy collapse? Does the majority of the population support the war? Could the economic downturn trigger widespread protests or even a simmering revolutionary movement? These questions are often discussed as if Russia were a uniform, cohesive whole.

In reality, Russia is a vast and diverse country whose more than 80 regions differ significantly from one another economically, culturally, and geographically.

This research bulletin analyses the effects of the war inside Russia specifically from a regional standpoint. It examines how the war's negative and positive consequences are distributed across different regions and what kinds of developments this uneven impact may generate. Finally, it assesses how these internal dynamics influence the security environment of Northern Europe.

2026:4 Four Russias at War: Regional Impacts and Their Implications on Northern European SecurityFile opens in a new tabpdf1.3MB

Further information will be provided by MA Eemil Mitikka if required.

Previous research bulletins can be found here.