Market Briefs | March 20, 2026

Rice
Rice futures continue to climb higher, with the May contact holding above $11. The next upside objective is the February high of $11.64. However, abundant supplies in Asia and a growing rice industry in South America continue to keep a lid on U.S. long-grain prices. U.S. consumers are turning to imported aromatic rice in record amounts, with 30% of the rice consumed in the United States projected to be imported this marketing year. The import projection that was projected was lowered by 2 million cwt in the monthly WASDE. A 2 million cwt decline in exports, however, offset that decrease, resulting in unchanged ending stocks of 50.3 million cwt. A significant reduction in acres this year could have some impact on prices, but that decline in production is not unexpected.

Soybeans
After trending higher for most of the year, soybeans have moved sharply lower on worries that the upcoming trade summit with China is in jeopardy of falling apart. With exports projected to decline by over 300 million bushels, and ending stocks to increase by 25 million bushels, the market needs to see an agreement with China to help increase demand for U.S. soybeans. Recent fundamental support has come mostly from the oil side of the complex with high values and demand coming from the biodiesel market. Higher crude oil prices have been supportive. However, in the March WASDE, USDA lowered the oil for biodiesel projection by 5.4%.

Cotton
The March WASDE report delivered no changes to the 2025/26 U.S. cotton balance sheet or price outlook. However, the global outlook turned slightly more bearish. World production increased by more than 1.1 million bales, driven by larger crops in Brazil due to expanded acreage and in China from improved yields. At the same time, global consumption was trimmed modestly, despite stronger use expected in China. On the trade side, global exports rose by 200,000 bales, supported primarily by increased import demand from India. From a technical standpoint, the Dec. 2026 futures contract has shown improving momentum, closing higher in eight of the last nine sessions. Prices recently posted a contract high of 72.99, suggesting the market may be in the early stages of establishing a short-term bottom.

Corn
The March WASDE was largely in line with expectations domestically but carried a slightly bearish tone due to expanding global supplies. The U.S. balance sheet was essentially unchanged, with ending stocks held at 2.127 billion bushels and no revisions to demand categories. The more notable shift came globally, where world ending stocks rose to 292.8 million metric tons-an increase of nearly 3 million from last month and above trade expectations. Despite this, new-crop corn futures have found underlying support from rising input cost concerns, particularly surrounding fertilizer availability ahead of planting and diesel prices climbing above $5 per gallon for the first time in four years. Technically, September futures are holding support near $4.60, with resistance developing around $4.80 as the market balances global supply pressure against tightening margin considerations for producers.

Wheat
The March WASDE report was largely neutral for wheat on the domestic side, with no changes to supply or demand and ending stocks remaining at 931 million bushels. The only adjustment was a modest increase in the season-average farm price, raised $0.05 to $4.95 per bushel. Wheat futures, however, have been on a strong upward trajectory since early January, with Chicago contracts rallying from near $5.30 to recent highs around $6.49. Despite the strength of this move, there is not yet a clear technical signal that the market has reached a top. Support is now developing near the $6.00 level, which will be an important area to watch if prices begin to consolidate or correct.

Livestock and Poultry
In the March WASDE report, USDA decreased the beef production estimate based on the recent slower pace of slaughter through early March, that more than offset heavier dressed weights. The beef export forecast was lowered based on tighter supplies, while import forecast was raised. Prices are forecasted to remain strong, again, based upon tight supplies. The pork production estimate was unchanged. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released later this month, will provide more information about supplies for 2026. Broiler production estimates were increased based on recent hatchery and slaughter data. Turkey production is still being impacted by the culling of birds affected by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza.