Boise State joins effort to harness AI for precipitation forecasting, grid reliability

Boise State University is part of a national effort to make weather forecasting smarter, and the power grid more reliable. The university is a partner on ASPIRE (ARM-Driven Simulation for Physical Insight Research Engine), a project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Genesis Mission and led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab). Using AI to analyze atmospheric data collected by the Department of Energy, the project aims to improve precipitation forecasts, which is essential for managing hydropower and protecting critical grid infrastructure nationwide for local utilities and the public.

The Genesis Mission is one of DOE's highest-profile research initiatives focused on AI and ASPIRE is among a select group of projects funded through the program.

ASPIRE is led by Principal Investigator Ann Almgren of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, with Boise State University Professor of Geosciences, Lejo Flores, serving as lead investigator from Boise State.

"ASPIRE brings AI experts and atmospheric scientists together to translate the atmospheric data we collect into physical insight. I am thrilled to work with our partners at Boise State on this project, which focuses on understanding the big picture down to the smallest details - this is true team science," said Almgren.

Linking weather science to energy reliability

Precipitation forecasting sits at the heart of U.S. energy reliability. Snowpack and rainfall patterns drive hydropower generation, and severe weather events pose ongoing risks to grid infrastructure. ASPIRE aims to shorten the path from raw atmospheric data to actionable scientific insights. This project will transform work that would normally take months, and compress it into hours.

To do this, ASPIRE will build a coordinated AI system that brings together curated data, insights from existing scientific literature, and regional atmospheric simulations. The result will be a novel research workflow that connects small-scale physical processes to large-scale weather patterns behind severe storms, snow droughts, and other extreme precipitation events, eventually enabling more adaptive, targeted data collection.

"The overarching vision of this project is to harness AI so scientists can more quickly advance the science of predicting precipitation, particularly as it relates to hydropower generation and energy reliability," said Flores. "The faculty and students who work on this project will get hands-on experience with research that has real impact across the country."

Central to ASPIRE is the use of agentic AI, autonomous systems that can take on complex, multi-step tasks from high-level instructions rather than narrow, single-purpose queries. In a scientific context, that means an AI agent could be asked to investigate a question such as "What conditions caused the extreme snowfall in Colorado during the December 2021 'Santa Slammer' event?" and, in response, synthesize existing literature, assemble relevant datasets, design and run numerical experiments with advanced weather models, and interpret results alongside prior research.

The ASPIRE team envisions these agents evolving from tools that handle time-consuming, routine tasks into genuine thinking partners for scientists, analyzing data, designing experiments to test hypotheses, and ultimately working alongside researchers much as a graduate student would collaborate with an advisor.

"ASPIRE reflects Boise State's commitment to research that addresses the real-world challenges facing utilities and critical infrastructure," said Nancy Glenn, Vice President for Research and Economic Development, Boise State University. "By improving our ability to anticipate extreme weather, this partnership with the Department of Energy can help strengthen grid reliability and give communities more time to prepare."

Additional details about ASPIRE, including the full project scope and timeline, will be released in coordination with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the Department of Energy as part of the broader Genesis Mission projects rollout.

This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award #DE-AC02-05CH11231.

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