Navigating Disruption

The second Trump administration features policies that bring both challenges and opportunities for traditional U.S. allies and partners. Some of these ring familiar from President Trump's first term, but others are entirely new and paradigm-shifting in their impact.

This compendium features eight analyses of how America's allies and partners around the world are responding to, and coping with, U.S. policies. For each case, the authors define which U.S. policy shifts are most significant for the ally, as well as the range of actions being undertaken to manage relations and preserve interests.

Paradigmatic shifts in U.S. foreign policy take place in the context of disruptive changes in the global order. Conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, U.S.-China great power competition, increasing cohesion among autocratic actors, and the weaponization of trade and finance by the two largest economic actors in the international system amplify the challenges faced by allies and partners.

"America First" policies generally challenge the notion that allies and partners are assets for the United States; they are seen instead as sapping U.S. power. This effectively puts the custodial burden of the alliance's welfare in the hands of the ally. Allies and partners must navigate the balance between highly transactional policies like those emanating from Washington and policies that sustain and prevent damage to long-term alliance equities with the United States.

When examining how U.S. allies and partners have coped with the policy changes wrought by Washington, one could infer some common traits. While allies initially wish to resist U.S. demands, promising not to "bend the knee," many seek to make deals with Washington in the end. The reasons vary for each case, but a common motivation relates to internalizing the responsibility for identifying solutions that preserve long-term alliance equities.

In many cases, allies can ill afford disruptive relations with their primary security and economic partner in times of acute uncertainty. In this sense, the Trump administration is wielding U.S. power, but its employment of transactional means could invite unpredictable consequences for alliance ties and U.S. interests.

Read the full report , featuring analyses and expert insights from the CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department.