Insight Guru Inc.
11/07/2026 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 11/07/2026 03:20
Can Texas Pacific Land Stock Rally 50% After This Dip
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Shares of Texas Pacific Land (TPL) are down 26.2% since their October 13 close, a drop that tempts buyers to step in. A 50% rally from here depends on whether royalties from oil, gas and water keep growing while Texas pauses data center permits. Following the stock's four earlier falls of more than 30% since 2010, its best price within a year reached a median 51.9% above the dip-date price. So why did the stock fall in the same weeks the company reported record revenue?
Why Did Texas Pacific Land Stock Fall?
Speaking on the fiscal Q3 2026 call on November 5, 2026, management tied the recent swings in the stock to the midterms and to perceived impacts on the energy and data center industries in Texas. Part of that worry is concrete. The outgoing Texas governor directed a state regulator to pause permits for data centers until a review of large grid connections is done, and Texas Pacific Land is working on data center projects across its land. According to management, the state's actions are not a blanket ban.
Have Texas Pacific Land's Past Drops Paid Off?
So far, they have. Between 2010 and November 6, 2026, Texas Pacific Land stock fell more than 30% in 30 trading days four times. In all four cases, the shares were higher 252 trading days later. The median gain over that year was 21.5%.
Collecting that gain could mean sitting through a further fall. During the year after each dip date, the stock's lowest close was a median 23.9% below the dip-date price. The best price arrived a median 152 days after the dip date, or about five months on.
| Time after a past dip | Past dips with that much time after them | Median TPL price change |
|---|---|---|
| 21 trading days | 4 | 0.0% |
| 63 trading days | 4 | 31.5% |
| 126 trading days | 4 | 26.0% |
| 252 trading days | 4 | 21.5% |
| Dip date | Fall to dip date (TPL / SPY) | 1 year later | Best in that year (days to it) | Worst in that year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-09 | -36.2% / -17.0% | 179.0% | 179.1% (365 days) | -34.0% |
| 2018-11-13 | -32.7% / -7.0% | 13.0% | 56.2% (150 days) | -25.7% |
| 2014-12-11 | -32.0% / 3.0% | 30.0% | 47.6% (154 days) | -2.5% |
| 2014-10-13 | -31.4% / -6.0% | 7.0% | 23.7% (8 days) | -22.0% |
| Median of 4 complete years | - | 21.5% | 51.9% (152 days) | -23.9% |
A dip date is the first day on which TPL was more than 30% below its price 30 trading days earlier, counted once per run of such days. Dips counted from 2010-01-01 to 2026-11-06. Fall to dip date: the price change over those 30 trading days, for TPL and for SPY over the same days. 1 year later: the price change 252 trading days after the dip date. Best and worst: the highest and lowest price in those 252 trading days against the dip-date price, with the calendar days to the highest. - means 252 trading days have not yet passed, or that the column does not apply.
Texas Pacific Land's Sales Growth Has Sped Up
Revenue growth against a year earlier climbed from 13.9% in fiscal Q4 2025 to 20.8% in fiscal Q1 2026. The pace kept climbing, reaching 31.2% in fiscal Q2 and 34.6% in fiscal Q3, the quarter in which management reported record oil production on its royalty acreage.
Texas Pacific Land also keeps most of that revenue as profit. Over the twelve months to September 30, 2026, its operating margin was 75.5%, against 19.0% for the S&P 500. The company ended September with $370 million in cash against $15.2 million of debt in its filings. Speaking on the call, management said its $500 million credit facility was undrawn. Buyers appear to pay for that quality. Even after the drop, the stock trades at 32.0 times earnings, against 21.8 for the S&P 500.
Data centers are the open question in the business. Commercial agreements for those projects are still being negotiated, and management said the Texas changes affect the timing of some of them in the near term. Management expects to spend capital in 2027 on water infrastructure to serve the first power and data center projects.
A buyer today is betting that growth on the royalty land keeps quickening while the data center projects wait, and that any further fall is no deeper than the ones past buyers sat through. Revenue growth against a year earlier is the figure to watch when Texas Pacific Land next reports, expected in February 2027.
Beyond TPL: A Systematic Way To Invest
Before you decide on TPL, consider a better choice. Since its September 2020 launch, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P MidCap and Russell 2000, without betting on one stock.
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Insight Guru Inc. published this content on November 07, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on November 07, 2026 at 09:20 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]