Japan: Grain and Feed Update

Japan's rice production in marketing year (MY) 2026/27 continues to rebound from a slump in MY 2024/25, with the latest forecast edging out last year's official tally. Rice prices are projected to decline significantly from the historical highs observed through 2024 and 2025, and rice will reclaim market share from wheat in MY 2026/27. With domestic supplies stabilized, Japan will import just the minimum market access volume of rice. The government's rice stock management decisions in MY 2026/27, especially regarding excess private table rice stocks and replenishing government reserves, will hold heavy sway over the feed market as increases in rice supplies could reduce consumption of feed corn and wheat. Food corn and barley consumption will recover in MY 2026/27 after a cool summer dampened demand for beverages in MY 2025/26. The Takaichi administration's plan to lower the consumption tax rate on food and beverages, effective April 2027, is likely to provide a tailwind for overall food consumption.