One Month Out From the Fall 2025 Elections, Democrats Are in Pole Position Arrow

MEMORANDUM
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: DNC Chair Ken Martin
DATE: October 6, 2025
RE: One Month Out From the Fall 2025 Elections, Democrats Are in Pole Position

A month ahead of critical elections in New Jersey, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and California, we are bullish about Democrats' chances across the board. Democratic campaigns are focused on the issues that we know matter most to voters: lowering costs, protecting health care, and stopping Donald Trump's cheating and corruption.

While Democrats are on offense, Republicans continue to struggle to defend Trump's deeply unpopular Big Ugly Bill, which kicks millions of Americans off their health insurance in order to pay for massive tax cuts for billionaires. Trump and his agenda are one of the biggest vulnerabilities for these Republican candidates, who struggled to answer basic questions when asked about jobs going away, health care cuts and rural health clinics closing.

Adding insult to injury, Trump has now shut down the federal government just to avoid undoing the massive health insurance price hikes they're causing for millions of working families. Under Republicans, premiums for 22 million Americans will double on average. And the American people know exactly who is to blame: Republicans.

The wind is at our backs after a year of overperformances around the country, but we refuse to take anything for granted. That's why the DNC is investing in races across the country - the most we've ever invested in an off-year after a presidential cycle - and we're building the political infrastructure necessary to not only win this year, but for years to come.

Trump Is Dragging Down Republicans

Donald Trump ran on a promise to lower costs on "Day One," but almost a year in, he's only made inflation worse. Millions of Americans are going to be kicked off their health insurance or face insurance sticker shock, the job market is frozen, and Trump's tariffs are raising costs on families, farmers, and small businesses - all of which is deeply unpopular with voters. Trump's agenda is so unpopular that now he is trying to cheat by rigging electoral maps, resulting in mid-cycle partisan gerrymandering that is also deeply unpopular.

Democrats are successfully seizing on these vulnerabilities. In a major warning sign for Donald Trump and the GOP, Democrats have now won or overperformed in 45 out of 46 key elections this year, by an average of 15 points in legislative elections, after running against Republicans on kitchen table issues.

Voters Know Whose Side Trump is On: Billionaires, Not Working Families

Democratic candidates across New Jersey, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and California are effectively highlighting one core message: Republicans are fighting for billionaires, Democrats are fighting to lower costs for working families.

In New Jersey: Jack Ciattarelli continues to rake in cash from billionaire landlords and roll over as Trump holds up billions of dollars and thousands of jobs for New Jersey's biggest infrastructure projects, all while his running mate also once again sided with the ultrawealthy. At a recent debate, Ciattarelli's running mate said the quiet part out loud: "Taxes are on the table, but I'd be careful of millionaire taxes." Meanwhile, Rep. Mikie Sherrill will declare a state of emergency on utility costs on Day One to end the utility rate hikes, and massively expand cheaper and cleaner power generation to build an energy arsenal in New Jersey.

In Virginia: Winsome Earle-Sears was called out for lying about Medicaid cuts, stumping with one of the chief architects of DOGE, which cut thousands of Virginia jobs, and refusing to tell Trump not to fire the hundreds of thousands of federal employees that call Virginia home. In stark contrast, Abigail Spanberger remains focused on lowering costs and putting Virginia first, including lowering Virginians' health care costs, housing costs, and energy costs.

In Pennsylvania: In Pennsylvania, right-wing billionaires like Jeff Yass continue to pour millions into the state Supreme Court retention race, even sending brazenly misleading mailers. Democrats, on the other hand, are on offense and highlighting how Justices Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty, and David Wecht are fighting to hold big corporations accountable and protect Pennsylvanians' abortion and voting rights.

In California: Conservative billionaires continue to spend millions in California to oppose Proposition 50, which gives Californians a chance to level the playing field and stand up to Trump's attempts to rig the Congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterms. While Donald Trump and his Republican allies are attacking fair and free elections, the DNC is fighting back in conjunction with the California Democratic Party and the Yes on Prop 50 campaign.

The DNC is All Hands on Deck to Support Our Candidates and Causes

As we approach Election Day, the DNC is full steam ahead. While Republicans are on defense, the DNC is on offense and investing a historic amount in this off-year election as part of our "compete everywhere" strategy.

In New Jersey: The DNC has invested over $3 million in the New Jersey Democratic coordinated campaign so far, a record amount in an off-year New Jersey election.

In Virginia: The DNC has invested over $3 million in the Virginia Democratic coordinated campaign to supercharge organizing and paid media efforts ahead of Election Day.

In Pennsylvania: The DNC has invested six figures into the Pennsylvania Democratic Party to support on-the-ground voter contact efforts and fund direct mail and paid media outreach to voters.

In California: The DNC has supported the California Democratic Party's massive bilingual organizing blitz in support of Proposition 50, including deploying our volunteer organizing team to make calls, send texts, and knock on doors in English and Spanish through Election Day.

In addition to these historic investments, the DNC will deploy our organizing team and activate our network of thousands of volunteers to mobilize for GOTV across all four states to ensure Democrats win.