Hoover Institution
09/17/2025 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 09/17/2025 12:48
The Senior Bulge: Anticipating and Addressing the Aging Boom
- History
- World
- Revitalizing History
The world is experiencing a profound demographic shift: a "senior bulge" where those aged 65+ outnumber younger cohorts for the first time in history. This trend, driven by longer life expectancy and lower fertility, poses economic, political, and social challenges to all societies. The following report explores the senior bulge's historical context and outlines several policy options for governments to adopt and proactively manage the complex realities of aging populations.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD
Key Takeaways
- For the first time in history, people ages 65+ outnumber young children, signaling a fundamental reversal from the prior "youth bulge" to a global "senior bulge."
- Driven by a combination of increased life expectancy and declining fertility rates, aging populations are challenging welfare states, shrinking workforces, increasing healthcare costs, and destabilizing pension systems originally designed for shorter retirements.
- As migration-especially of skilled workers-can offset demographic decline, the United States and other developed nations are encouraged to expand legal migration pathways.
- While robotics may assist elder care, cultural resistance and costs hinder widespread adoption; meanwhile, in-person labor remains essential, even with remote work growth.
- When addressing how to mitigate against the costs of the "senior bulge" through policy, reacting to each trend in isolation is inefficient. Systems thinking emphasis on examining the interactions of individual elements offers a better approach by focusing on how such trends interact to shape future political, cultural, economic, and military outcomes.
The Senior Bulge: Anticipating and Addressing the Aging Boom by Hoover Institution
Cite this report:
Jonathan Cosgrove, Divya Ganesan, Daniel Longo, and Katharine Sorensen, "The Senior Bulge: Anticipating and Addressing the Aging Boom," Hoover Institution, Hoover History Lab, September 2025.
About the Authors
Jonathan Cosgrove graduated from Stanford University with a master's degree in public policy and a bachelor's degree in political science and symbolic systems. At the Hoover Institution, he conducted research for former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, focusing on Middle East policy and Arab-Israeli relations. After graduation, he will begin investing in early-stage technology companies.
Divya Ganesan earned a BA in political science from Stanford in 2025, graduating with honors in international security, and is pursuing an MS in computer science at Stanford. She is fascinated by the intersection of national security and technology, exploring how emerging technologies shape global power, policy, and security strategies.
Daniel Longo graduated from Stanford in 2025 with a BA in philosophy and BS in math. After graduation, he is working on symbolic AI and formal reasoning for decision making.
Katharine Sorensen is a senior at Stanford University studying Arabic, classics, and economics. Deeply interested in the Middle East, she has spent her last three summers in Morocco, Lebanon, and the United Arab Emirates and plans to move to the region after graduation. She is particularly interested in Saudi political and economic reengagement in Lebanon, particularly to counter Hezbollah's influence.
Hoover Institution published this content on September 17, 2025, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on September 17, 2025 at 18:48 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]