Boosting North Sea investment could generate £13.4 billion to eliminate fuel poverty and add an additional £60 billion to the UK economy

David Whitehouse, Chief Executive of Offshore Energies UK, will today (Wednesday 17 June) present evidence to a parliamentary select committee showing how a stable and competitive fiscal regime for the North Sea could unlock billions for the UK economy - and give the Chancellor the means to support households struggling with energy costs.

His evidence will show that rapid implementation of the Treasury's proposed Oil and Gas Price Mechanism (OGPM) from April 2027 - instead of waiting until 2030 - would significantly increase investment and production, strengthening both energy security and public finances.

Bringing forward the OGPM would deliver an additional £2.8 billion in direct taxes from the sector over the next decade, alongside a further £10.6 billion in payroll taxes from the workforce. In total, that is £13.4 billion of additional revenue available to the Treasury.

At the same time, official data shows that around 3 million UK households are in fuel poverty, unable to afford to heat their homes or cook regular hot meals. Government estimates suggest that an average annual payment of £380 per household would be enough to lift them all out of fuel poverty. The value generated from a stable North Sea tax regime would be more than sufficient to close that gap completely.

David Whitehouse chief executive of Offshore Energies UK will today (Wednesday 17th June) present evidence to the Energy Security and Net Zero select committee showing that rapid implementation of the Treasury's proposed Oil and Gas Price Mechanism (OGPM) would radically boost revenue from the North Sea oil and gas industry.

Replacing the defective Energy Profits Levy with the government-proposed OGPM from April 2027 instead of waiting until its planned introduction in 2030, would raise an additional £2.8 billion in direct taxes paid by the industry over the next decade, and a further £10.6 in payroll taxes from the workforce. This combined revenue would mean an extra £13.4 billion for government coffers over the next decade.

In his evidence to the House of Commons Energy Security and Net Zero Committee inquiry, Managing the Future of UK Oil and Gas, Mr Whitehouse will argue that the current windfall tax is actively undermining investment - leaving projects uneconomic, accelerating production decline, and ultimately reducing the tax revenues available to government.

He will set out analysis showing that, under a more competitive regime, coupled with support for developments such as Rosebank and Jackdaw, the UK could deliver:

• 1.1 billion additional barrels by 2035, meeting half of the UK's demand in that period.
• Add more than £60 billion to the UK economy over the next decade.

This would slow the current projected 30-40% decline in domestic production, reducing reliance on imports and strengthening the UK's economic resilience.

Without change, the UK is set to become increasingly dependent on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), particularly from the United States and Qatar. Under OEUK analysis, LNG imports could supply up to 50% of UK gas demand within a decade.

By contrast, a stronger domestic sector would limit LNG dependency to around 4% by 2030 and 6% by 2035.

This matters not just for security but for emissions. Imported LNG has roughly four times the carbon footprint of UK-produced gas, meaning declining domestic production risks increasing global emissions rather than reducing them.

Ahead of the evidence session, David Whitehouse said:

"Domestic oil and gas production doesn't just supply energy - it gives the Chancellor choices. It generates tax revenues, supports jobs, and strengthens the economy. Those are the levers government can use to support households - including those in fuel poverty."

"Our analysis shows that a stable North Sea tax regime coupled with supportive policy could generate enough additional tax revenue to eliminate fuel poverty altogether."

"It is estimated that approximately 50% of the UK energy demand to 2050 will be met by oil and gas. The choice is whether we produce it ourselves with all the benefits for UK jobs, economic value, taxes, or rely on imports with none of those benefits"

"Accelerated production decline in the UK is a policy choice not a geological inevitability. It leaves us poorer, less able to support vulnerable communities, more exposed to geopolitical risk, and reduces energy security for the UK and our European partners."

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