Twelve Securis Cat Radar – 02 October 2026

There is currently no imminent risk of tropical cyclone landfall globally.

Over the past week, tropical storm activity has remained concentrated in the Pacific.

In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Polo made two landfalls: first as a Category 2 hurricane along the west coast of Baja California, Mexico, and subsequently, after crossing the Gulf of California, as a Category 1 hurricane along the coast of Sonora. Given the relatively low concentration of insured exposure in both regions, no significant insurance impacts are expected. Hurricane Rachel also formed off the west coast of Mexico and has since strengthened into a major hurricane while moving away from the coast. Rachel is expected to maintain major hurricane strength until early Saturday.

In the central Pacific, Hurricane Nolo passed well south of Hawaii's Big Island over the weekend of 26-27 September as a Category 2 hurricane. Hurricane-force winds did not affect any of the main Hawaiian Islands, while the system's heaviest rainfall remained offshore. Nolo is forecast to regain major hurricane strength over the coming days, although it will remain far from land.

In the western Pacific, Typhoon Surigae, the twenty-sixth named storm of the season, passed south of the Japanese mainland and close to Japan's Nansei Islands over the weekend of 26-27 September. No significant impacts have been reported. Typhoon Choi-wan, the twenty-seventh named storm of the season, is currently west of the northern Mariana Islands and is expected to strengthen significantly over the weekend. Choi-wan is not currently forecast to approach land.

Elevated tropical cyclone activity is expected to continue across the Pacific over the coming weeks. For context, during the 2015 Pacific hurricane season, which was also influenced by a strong El Niño, Category 4 Hurricane Sandra formed off the west coast of Mexico unusually late in the season, towards the end of November. This illustrates the potential for significant Pacific activity to persist well beyond the climatological peak.

In the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay for potential redevelopment in the central Atlantic. The probability of redevelopment remains very low, and any reformed system is not expected to pose a risk to land. Looking further ahead, several weather models indicate the possibility of tropical development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico next week. There remains considerable uncertainty at this stage. Current indications suggest that any system would likely remain relatively weak, with heavy rainfall potentially representing the main risk for parts of the Gulf Coast and Florida. We will continue to monitor developments closely as forecast confidence improves.

As we move beyond the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, we will return to a bi-weekly update schedule through the end of the season.

As always, Twelve Securis continues to closely monitor any catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on any relevant new major events which occur.

Please feel free to contact us with any questions.