U.S. Economy Stands to Lose $3.4 Billion from Precipitous Drop in International Students

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Preliminary projections by NAFSA: Association of International Educators and JB International reveal that actions such as visa bans and disruptions in visa interviews and processing could ultimately have a devastating effect on U.S. local economies. Analysis based on U.S. institution of higher education responses to IIE's Spring 2026 Snapshot on International Educational Exchange estimates a 9.5 percent drop in overall international enrollment this fall. Up to 110,00 fewer international students at U.S. colleges and universities will deprive local economies of $3.4 billion in spending and more than 39,000 jobs.

"The projections underscore what we've long warned: U.S. policy and regulations affect where international students plan to invest their future-and their decisions carry significant short- and long-term consequences for U.S. society and economy," said Fanta Aw, Executive Director and CEO of NAFSA: Association of International Educators. "All Americans lose when international students and scholars are driven to more welcoming countries. Forfeiting U.S position as the top destination for global talent hurts students, hospitals, research laboratories, the economies-and carries the real risk that the next big invention will not happen on U.S. soil. There is ample capacity in this country for their innovation, perspectives, and ambition. We urge the administration and Congress to take swift action to ensure international student contributions continue to benefit American ingenuity, economic prosperity, and national security."

Factors Driving the Decline

• Reduced Demand: According to recent data collected by the Association of American Universities Data Exchange, international applications to U.S. doctoral programs for this fall declined by 21 percent, fueling a 17 percent drop in international admissions, and contributing to a 15 percent drop in overall doctoral program admissions due to federal research funding uncertainty.
• Visa Bans: A December 16, 2025, executive order established restrictions targeting 39 countries with no exceptions for F student or J exchange visitor applicants. Countries covered by the ban include Iran and Nigeria, which send large numbers of students to study in the United States
• FIFA World Cup 2026: The State Department publicly announced priority visa processing for FIFA World Cup ticket holders traveling to the United States. The final game occurred on July 19, well into the traditional "peak" season (May through August) for student and exchange visitor visas. Historically, the Department has prioritized student and scholar visa applications during this peak season, helping ensure timely campus arrivals.
• Limited Appointment Availability: There are reports of limited or delayed appointments for international students at consulates in India, China, and across Europe, with many requests for expedited appointments denied. India and China are the top two international student sending countries to the United States.
• Policy and Regulatory Uncertainty: In August 2025, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) proposed eliminating the longstanding "duration of status" framework for F students and J exchange visitors. Recently, DHS published the final rule that, as of September 15, 2026, replaces D/S with a fixed Admit-Until-Date (AUD), creating significant planning uncertainty for prospective students, particularly those considering longer-degree programs or uncertain career trajectories. This compounds the uncertainty caused by the current administration's continued warnings that it intends to reform the Optional Practical Training program, which is an essential tool to meeting the U.S. labor shortage in key fields, especially STEM.

Policy Solutions

To address this decline, NAFSA urges the administration to prioritize visa interview availability and processing for all F and M students and J exchange visitors; exempt F and M students as well as J exchange visitors from the current travel ban affecting nationals from 39 countries while maintaining background checks and vetting required for visa issuance; and preserve Optional Practical Training for all F-1 students.

For More Information

Click here to view the full report and detailed findings.

Sources

JB lnternational based its projected Fall 2026 economic analysis using the following sources: SEVIS Data Mapping Tool Data, Open Doors 2025, IIE Spring 2026 Snapshot on International Educational Exchange, Common Data Set, and the NAFSA International Student Economic Value Tool.

About NAFSA: Association of International Educators
NAFSA: Association of International Educators is the world's largest and most comprehensive nonprofit association dedicated to international education and exchange. NAFSA promotes policies that ensure the continued growth and impact of global learning, cultural exchange, and mutual understanding through study abroad, international student services, and campus internationalization. With a network of more than 10,000 professionals in the field at more than 4,000 institutions in more than 150 countries, NAFSA is committed to fostering a more globally connected and peaceful world. nafsa.org.

About JB International
JB International is the team behind Trilby Suite, a modern case management platform that helps institutions manage international employees, scholars, and students while meeting complex regulatory requirements. With over 60 years of combined experience in international education and immigration compliance, JB International also leads research and data initiatives that support the field at large. jb.international.