Experts emphasize importance of long-term ocean research, predict average returns for 2026 Columbia River Basin salmon and steelhead

At April's meeting, the Council heard presentations on ocean conditions as well as the 2025 returns and the 2026 forecast for Columbia River Basin salmon and steelhead. Overall, presenters predicted average ocean conditions and average run sizes for salmon and steelhead in 2026.

Presenters included representatives from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC), Idaho Department of Fish and Game (IDFG), and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW).

Salmon ocean ecology and long-term data collection

"[This] is a comprehensive effort to understand the whole system and how it impacts salmon and steelhead when they get to the ocean," began Brian Burke, Supervisory Research Fishery Biologist with NOAA's Northwest Fisheries Science Center, as he presented on the value of ocean research to the Council's Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife Program (read presentation | watch video). The Fish and Wildlife Program recognizes the ocean environment as an integral part of the Columbia River ecosystem, with measures in the 2014/2020 Program and the draft 2026 Program that support monitoring and research to better understand those interactions and evaluate survival and restoration potential.

Burke emphasized the importance of long-term research on ocean and near-plume conditions for understanding impacts to salmon and steelhead populations by describing several ongoing studies. One such study is the Chinook sibling regression, a modeling approach that looks at a cohort of fish that enter the ocean in a given year. Some of those fish will come back early (referred to as jacks), and the number of jacks that return can be used to predict the number of adults returning the next year.

"If you want to know how many seniors will be in the graduating class next year, it's helpful to know how many juniors are in this year's class," said Burke.

Evidence shows that much of the variability in mortality happens in the first few weeks to months when fish enter the ocean. Fish that will return as jacks and fish that return as adults experience similar early conditions before their ocean life cycles diverge, and therefore experience similar outcomes.

This slide shows the migration and distribution that adult Chinook would be taking their first summer and fall in the ocean, arriving in coastal Alaska by July or August. The red represents the distribution of jacks, which return after a year and thus won't travel as far north.

Since there is a strong relationship between jacks in one year and adults in the next that originated in the same cohort, the area where they overlap seems to be important in determining their success. Further research by Burke's team indicated that the critical period is between May and June and could be influenced by factors occurring early in their ocean life off the coast of Washington.

"Managing the entire Pacific basin would be a huge, almost impossible task. But given the results...We don't need to manage the entire North Pacific basin. If we can influence salmon's experience just off the coastal Washington environment, we can have a huge impact on adult returns because that is where a lot of the variability and mortality occurs," said Burke.

Another long-term study showed an important and strong correlation between more available food for Coho resulting in higher growth rates. That higher growth rate then correlateswith a higher proportion of fish returning as jacks, which can then be used to predict adult returns.

Another critical long-term study for the region is NOAA's Stoplight Chart. The Stoplight Chart uses a variety of ocean indicators to predict success for Columbia River Basin salmon and steelhead, and displays those indicators over multiple years of study. Mixed signals on indicators from the last 4 or 5 years indicate a prediction of average conditions for the next few years, which tend to produce average returns. There are warning signs for 2026 though, said Burke, citing a 1-2 punch of the region's drought conditions and subsequent impacts on river conditions for fish, compounded by a prediction of a strong El Niño effect, which can result in lower survival for fish entering the ocean.

However, many of these studies, some of which have been in place since 1998, are now in jeopardy due to funding cuts across the federal government, and inflation. The team is hoping advanced technologies like digital data collection, using thermal cameras and AI to better count predators, and use of environmental DNA (eDNA) may be able to help make up some of the difference. However, ramping up those technologies is not cheap or easy, and funding is still very uncertain, according to Burke. He expects that several key components, including tracking of growth hormones and the May sampling survey, will not be able to continue.

Photo credit: NOAA

Burke also pointed out, in answer to a question from Idaho member Ed Schriever, that even parts of the Spotlight chart are becoming less predictive over time and may need to be updated.

"The ocean is not a static thing. It's very dynamic, and those relationships are changing over time. And we need to address that."

Columbia River Basin salmon and steelhead returns for 2025 and forecasts for 2026

Stuart Ellis, Deputy Manager, Fisheries Management Department, CRITFC, John Cassinelli, Anadromous Fisheries Program Manager, IDFG, and Dr. Charlene Hurst, Columbia River Division Manager, WDFW, recapped 2025 returns and provided forecasts for adult salmon and steelhead returns to the Columbia River Basin in 2026 (read presentation | watch video).

Fish and Wildlife Program Scientist Kate Self clarified how these numbers relate to the Council's 5 million fish goal. "These returns reflect fish returning from the Columbia River mouth and therefore exclude ocean fisheries except for a few specific examples. The Council's goal of 5 million salmon and steelhead returning does include ocean fisheries. So this is a slightly different but equally valuable look at forecasting and return trends over time by stock," said Self.

Adults return forecasts for salmon and steelhead

Chinook salmon

Lower and upriver spring Chinook

• 2026 forecast: 228,700
• 2025 actual: 252,502

Upriver spring Chinook

• 2026 forecast: 147,300
• 2025 actual: 154,703

Upper Columbia summer Chinook

• 2026 forecast: 41,000
• 2025 actual: 43,642

Upriver bright fall Chinook

• 2026 forecast: 281,600
• 2025 actual: 290,428

Lower river hatchery fall Chinook

• 2026 forecast: 118,600
• 2025 actual: 115,428

Sockeye

Columbia River sockeye

• 2025 actual: 167,549
• 2026 forecast: 274,900
• 2025 wild actual: 1,268
• 2026 wild forecast: 3,300

Coho

Columbia River coho ocean abundance

• 2026 forecast: 511,200
• 2025 actual: 614,618

Steelhead

Total A-index summer steelhead

• 2026 forecast: 87,900
• 2025 actual: 128,389

Wild A-index summer steelhead

• 2026 forecast: 33,100
• 2025 actual: 46,542

Total B-index summer steelhead

• 2026 forecast: 40,100
• 2025 actual: 22,205

Wild B-index summer steelhead

• 2026 forecast: 4,500
• 2025 actual: 1,318

Snake River Basin at Lower Granite Dam

Wild spring/summer Chinook

• 2026 forecast: 9,661
• 2025 actual: 8,065

Hatchery spring/summer Chinook

• 2026 forecast: 33,770
• 2025 actual: 44,769

Hatchery fall Chinook

• 2026 forecast: 20,884
• 2025 actual: 26,666

Wild fall Chinook

• 2026 forecast: 5,370
• 2025 actual: 4,498

Hatchery sockeye

• 2026 forecast: 1,159
• 2025 actual: 1,219

Wild sockeye

• 2026 forecast: 365
• 2025 actual: 56

Hatchery steelhead

• 2026-27 forecast: 52,250
• 2025-26 preliminary: 61,684

Wild steelhead

• 2026 forecast: 19,700
• 2025 preliminary: 17,265