Trends and Projections: greenhouse gas emissions largely on track to 2030 targets

Energy transition well underway

While there is more work to do, Europe's shift away from fossil energy sources is well underway, the report says. The overall reduction in emissions since 1990 has been mainly driven by the energy transition. The EU has succeeded in significantly reducing the use of the most emission-intensive fuels, such as coal and oil, while accelerating the development of renewable energy.

The EU has set a common target of reaching at least 42.5% renewable energy use by 2030 and of further reducing reductions in energy consumption. The distance to these goals remains significant, the report says. To reach the 2030 renewables target, the annual additions of renewable energy capacity must more than double compared to the previous five-year averages. For final energy consumption, annual reductions must also more than double.

These ambitions are achievable but will require full and broad implementation of legislation as well as maximum efforts to scale up the enablers of the transition. Technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles play a crucial role to play here, as they can help cut emissions and reduce final energy use compared with fossil-based alternatives.

Progress to 2030 and beyond

The report notes several developments that will require focused attention in the coming years to maintain progress. These include a year-on-year decline in electric vehicle sales in 2024, stagnation in GHG emission reductions in certain sectors and Member States and the long-term negative trend in carbon sequestration of the EU's forests and soils. Together, these trends all highlight the need to maintain a strong focus on, and investment in, climate action.

This report shows that the foundation for this progress is in place: recent years have seen a rapid acceleration in emission reductions and the emergence of numerous technological and policy solutions. However, it also underscores the scale of the remaining challenge - in particular, the need to strengthen more resilient carbon sinks, accelerate transport decarbonisation and ensure delivery at national level.

Every tonne of emissions avoided reduces future risks and costs. Every renewable installation, building renovation, or electric vehicle deployed represents a step to a cleaner, more energy independent and more resilient Europe.

About the report

The EEA's Trends and Projections in Europe report explores historical trends, recent progress and projected future progress on climate mitigation through reduced greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy gains and improved energy efficiency. It builds on data reported by the EU-27 Member States, five EEA member countries and nine Contracting Parties of the Energy Community.

With this package, the EEA supports the European Commission's assessment of progress toward meeting the EU's climate and energy targets. In its upcoming Climate Action Progress Report, the Commission will use recently submitted National Energy and Climate Plans from Member States as an additional information source.

The EEA today also published its latest EEA briefing outlining progress and challenges in Europe's climate adaptation policies and actions. Both are being released at the same time with the European Commission State of the Energy Union and Climate Action Progress Report 2025.

EEA's climate and energy package

• EEA report Trends and Projections in Europe 2025
• Technical background document 2025
• ETC report on approximated EU greenhouse gas inventory 2024

Updated climate and energy indicators

• Total net greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe
• Progress towards national greenhouse gas emissions targets in Europe
• Greenhouse gas emissions under the EU Emissions Trading System
• Greenhouse gas emissions from land use, land use change and forestry in Europe
• Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture in Europe
• Greenhouse gas emissions from energy use in buildings in Europe
• Greenhouse gas emission intensity of electricity generation in Europe
• Primary and final energy consumption in Europe
• Share of energy consumption from renewable sources in Europe
• Greenhouse gas emissions from transport in Europe
• Use of renewable energy for transport in Europe
• New registrations of electric cars in Europe
• Greenhouse gas emission intensity of fuels and biofuels for road transport in Europe

Datasets

• Preliminary dataset on EU renewable energy shares
• Dataset on national greenhouse gas emissions projections
• National systems for policies and measures and greenhouse gas projections