Deloitte Access Economics Employment Forecasts: A shifting outlook for white-collar workers

28 August 2026: White-collar workers are expected to experience the greatest disruption from AI implementation as the technology begins to reshape occupational demand across Australia's labour market, according to a new report from Deloitte Access Economics.

The August 2026 edition of Deloitte Access Economics' quarterly Employment Forecasts report finds that, although AI is yet to drive structural change in Australian employment, it is expected to become more visible through shifts in the types of jobs and tasks demanded across the economy.

Using Deloitte Human Capital's Work Analyser tool, Deloitte Access Economics has assessed occupations based on the extent to which core tasks can be automated by AI versus where human judgement, empathy and interpersonal skills remain necessary.

The analysis identifies 82 'AI-disrupted' occupations expected to face the highest risk of weaker employment demand as AI replaces tasks that require less human judgement, empathy or interpersonal skills.

Releasing the report, Deloitte Access Economics Partner David Rumbens said: "To date, AI has not yet had a significant structural effect on Australian employment. However, the impact of AI on the labour market is likely to occur where automation and augmentation affect specific tasks within jobs.

"Overall, white-collar workers are expected to experience the greatest disruption from AI implementation, with most clerical and administrative occupations involving tasks that are readily automatable with current AI solutions.

"However, these effects are unlikely to be uniform. Administrative and clerical roles are expected to face weaker employment demand, while occupations in which AI primarily augments cognitive work may benefit from improvements in productivity, output quality and service delivery and see stronger employment growth."

Recent improvements in market-sector hiring bode well for white-collar employment in 2025-26, with employment growth picking up to 1.4% (71,900 workers) following a tough period for professional roles. However, the outlook is mixed, and workforce growth is set to slow to 0.9% (46,100 workers) in 2026-27 and 0.9% (49,100 workers) in 2027-28, as the economic slowdown and potential further interest rate increases place pressure on hiring.

David Rumbens said: "While employment outcomes in Australia show little disruption to date, some parts of the workforce are starting to see shifts in hiring patterns, partly reflecting the influence of AI on job tasks and roles.

"Stronger evidence of structural labour market disruption due to AI continues to emerge in the US. Over the year to June 2026, employment in the most AI-exposed occupations contracted by 0.2%, while employment in the least exposed occupations grew by 1.8% over the same period.

"Looking ahead, the cost of AI is likely to play a major role in determining the pace and extent of adoption, and the resulting labour market disruption. As costs become metered and charged on a per-token basis, many companies are facing an AI spending reality check.

"Ultimately, the trajectory of AI-driven labour market disruption will be shaped not only by the productivity gains generated, but also by the costs incurred. Firms and workers that can manage these dynamics are more likely to harness the full potential of the technology and drive transformation across the labour market."

Labour market weakens as economy slows

Despite some volatility, the Australian labour market has been relatively resilient in the past three months, adding 102,600 jobs to the economy. This was matched by stronger labour supply, which has seen the unemployment rate hover around 4.5%, consistent with a labour market that is broadly in balance.

At the same time, there are emerging signs that labour market conditions are beginning to soften. Job vacancies fell by 2.1% in the three months to May 2026, driven by an almost 8% decline in public sector vacancies, likely reflecting fiscal constraint across Australian federal and state governments.

Overall, total Australian employment growth is forecast to slow from 1.3% (192,200 workers) in 2025-26 to 0.9% (129,200 workers) in 2026-27, before nudging up to 1.1% (163,800 workers) in 2027-28. This trend of slowing employment growth is expected to add some slack to the labour market and push the unemployment rate to around 4.7% by the end of 2026.

David Rumbens said: "While labour market conditions have remained relatively strong in recent months, the outlook remains challenging. Ongoing volatility in global markets, continuing conflict in the Middle East, and the potential for further cash rate increases are expected to weigh on economic activity and labour demand in the period ahead.

"Yet, there are important positives, including large-scale data centre investment and the transformational opportunities for productivity growth presented by AI. Deloitte Access Economics expects productivity growth to pick up in the coming years, with an important share of this recovery likely to be supported by productivity gains linked to the implementation and use of AI across the country."

On a sectoral level:

• The human services workforce grew by 2.5% (136,700 workers) in 2025-26, with growth forecast to moderate to 0.9% (52,600 workers) in 2026-27 and 1.1% (62,800 workers) in 2027-28.
• White-collar employment growth picked up to 1.4% (71,900 workers) in 2025-26 but is forecast to slow to 0.9% in both 2026-27 (46,100 workers) and 2027-28 (49,100 workers).
• The blue-collar workforce declined by 0.4% (16,400 workers) in 2025-26, but is forecast to recover by 0.8% (30,500 workers) in 2026-27 as construction activity lifts.

About Employment Forecasts

Employment Forecasts is released quarterly and provides forecasts and commentary for each industry and occupation, plus white collar, blue collar and human services employment. There are three levels of data available: state, city and CBD. Employment Forecasts is particularly useful in the analysis of property market demand.