With Trump's Middle East Buildup, Think Desert Fox—Not Desert Storm

Analysis by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park

Published February 27, 2026

The United States appears poised to attack Iran just eight months after Operation Midnight Hammer. While U.S. military presence in the Middle East is at its highest level since five carrier battle groups assembled at the outset of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, it lacks the size and capabilities needed for major combat operations or regime change.

1. The current force level is comparable to Operation Desert Fox, the Clinton administration's punitive 70-hour bombing campaign after Saddam Hussein refused to cooperate with UN nuclear inspectors. Like then, U.S. forces in the Middle East can launch 150-250 Tomahawk missiles and other long-range missiles (e.g., JASSMs) against facilities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or Iran's nuclear program. Israeli airpower might contribute to a punitive campaign.
2. For major combat operations or regime change, the United States would need to deploy large ground forces in the region, an unlikely course of action for the Trump administration. An extended, weeks-long bombing campaign is possible but would need an acceptance of risk in sending aircraft over Iran, with the possibility of lossesand more time for logistics buildup.
3. U.S. forces also lack special operations forces and Marines needed to conduct raids or amphibious operations ashore. A Maduro-style capture of Ayatollah Khamenei or other Iranian leadership is unlikely, particularly given the distance of likely launch points to Tehran.

CSIS Charts is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

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