A month of contrasts as global markets end mixed while the JSE records a modest decline in October

October has a complicated reputation on Wall Street. Historically associated with some of financial history's most infamous market collapses, including Black Thursday and Black Tuesday in 1929, and Black Monday in 1987. These events have given rise to the so-called October Effect, a psychological phenomenon where investors anticipate seasonal equity market weakness. Yet history also reveals that October frequently serves as a turning point for strong market rebounds, albeit often accompanied by elevated volatility. Global equity markets lived up to this volatile, divergent reputation last month, with the MSCI World declining 0.8% MoM (+11.3% YTD). Investors were forced to navigate a complex matrix of shifting variables, including re-accelerating rate anxieties, fluctuating US Treasury yields, widening geopolitical friction in the Middle East, and a sharp mid-month pullback across high-flying AI and semiconductor stocks, which added to the volatility. Against this backdrop, a busy 3Q26 earnings season triggered aggressive capital rotation across geographical regions and sectors, leading to deeply fragmented returns across global equity markets.

In the US, the three major equity benchmarks closed October mixed. The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined by 5.3% MoM (its worst loss since March 2025), although it remains 9.4% higher YTD. The broader S&P 500 retreated by 0.9% MoM (+10.7% YTD), weighed down by growing concerns around the scale and potential returns of mega-cap AI-related investments. Conversely, the blue-chip Dow bucked the tech sell-off to gain 1.7% MoM (+7.7% YTD), buoyed by a rotation towards more defensive sectors, including healthcare.

US economic data painted a mixed picture. September headline inflation accelerated to 3.7% YoY vs August's 3.4% print, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, advanced to 2.6% from August's 2.4%. Similarly, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation metric showed signs of stickiness, with the October core personal consumption expenditure (PCE), excluding food and energy, climbing to 3.1% YoY from 2.6% in September. Despite inflation remaining sticky above the Fed's 2% target, 3Q26 GDP growth remained resilient, expanding at an annualised rate of 3.4%, exceeding the 3.1% consensus estimate and ahead of 2Q26's 2.2% growth. Consumer spending rose 0.5%, while personal income advanced by 0.2%. At its October meeting, the Fed left rates unchanged. The widely anticipated pause followed September's 25-bpt hike (its first increase since July 2023). The accompanying statement adopted a marginally less hawkish tone; policymakers notably moved away from its previous reference to higher rates supporting a timelier return of inflation to 2%, instead emphasising that economic data would determine the policy stance required to achieve its inflation target.

European equity markets (Euro Stoxx 50 -2.1% MoM/+8.7% YTD) also delivered fractured performances. Some of the major regional benchmarks performed more favourably than their US tech-heavy counterparts, supported by relatively strong 3Q26 earnings and lower exposure to the tech sector, which seemed to provide a buffer against ongoing macroeconomic headwinds. Germany's DAX rose 2.5% MoM (+5.4% YTD) while France's CAC managed a minor 0.1% MoM gain (-2.2% YTD). September eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.8% YoY, marking a three-year high vs August's 3.2% print.

Despite general global equity market volatility and September domestic inflation reaching 3.5% (vs 3.1% in August), the UK market emerged as a comparatively resilient performer vs its international peers, with the benchmark FTSE 100 Index up 1.3% MoM (+10.9% YTD).

In stark contrast, China's equity markets experienced a sharp downturn, primarily triggered by a massive unwinding of speculative positions in the domestic AI and semiconductor sectors. Market sentiment was further dampened by growing investor frustration with Beijing's economic policy direction as the government prioritised provincial debt repair over large-scale household infrastructure spending, weighing on local consumer confidence. Consequently, the Shanghai Composite tumbled 6.3% MoM (-9.3% YTD), while the Hang Seng shed 5.4% (-9.1% YTD). October's official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 49.3 from 50.1 in September, while non-manufacturing PMI, including services and construction, fell to 49.7 from 50.2. The 50-point mark separates expansion from contraction.

Japanese equities endured a similarly volatile month, buffeted by global tech corrections, rising energy costs, and anticipation surrounding key central bank decisions. The Nikkei ended the month 5.2% lower (+25.7% YTD). Japan's September headline inflation rose to 2.1% YoY vs 1.9% in August.

In the global commodities space, energy and precious metals moved in opposite directions. Brent crude oil surged by 13.6% MoM (+93.3% YTD) to trade at multi-year highs as the global oil market experienced an intense geopolitical energy shock. Conversely, precious metals faced a downward correction. The gold price slid 6.8% MoM (-10.3% YTD) as elevated oil prices reinforced concerns that inflation could remain sticky, supporting expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates. The broader platinum group metals (PGM) complex recorded even bigger declines. Platinum plummeted 16.4% MoM (-30.3% YTD), palladium dropped by19.0% (-39.6% YTD), while rhodium managed a minor 0.3% MoM uptick (-0.5% YTD).

The JSE recorded a modest pullback in October, primarily driven by global energy volatility, which injected intense inflationary headwinds into the domestic landscape and prompted a risk-off shift among investors. The FTSE JSE All Share Index retreated by 0.8% (-7.1% YTD), with the primary drag stemming from lower gold and PGM equity counters. This pressure was compounded by constrained domestic consumer spending, geopolitical risks, and ongoing structural retail sector headwinds. Resources once again emerged as the weakest major market sector, with the Resi-10 plunging 9.2% MoM (-12.5% YTD). Conversely, financials and industrials delivered positive returns as the Indi-25 closed 3.7% higher (-13.3% YTD), and the Fini-15 advanced by 2.7% (+2.8% YTD). The SA Listed Property Index (SAPY) edged up 0.6% MoM (+1.0% YTD). The rand weakened by 1.7% against the US dollar (-0.9% YTD).

SA September headline inflation increased to 4.5% from 4.4% in August, printing softer than expected. Core inflation eased to 4.0% from 4.1%. August retail sales grew 3.3% YoY in real terms, tracking July's 3.4% growth rate, though on a seasonally adjusted basis, sales slipped 0.3% MoM, a modest pullback after July's 2.4% jump. The Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) provided a broadly market-friendly fiscal outlook despite a significantly more challenging backdrop than that which informed the February Budget. Importantly, the government remains committed to fiscal consolidation, despite external shocks and a weaker growth outlook. This continued commitment is supportive of domestic financial markets.

Figure 1: The 20 best-performing shares in October 2026, MoM % change

Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital

While October proved challenging for resource heavyweights, a select group of JSE-listed counters delivered exceptional double-digit returns, propelled by company-specific developments and, in some cases, exposure to more resilient earnings streams.

Sasol (+26.3%) was the best-performing share in October. Its strong rally coincided with a significant increase in global oil prices, with Brent crude pushing past the US$117/bbl level on 30 October amid escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions. Higher oil prices can support Sasol's fuel-related earnings, given the link between international oil prices and the value of its liquid fuels output. However, the Group's overall performance is also influenced by chemical prices and margins, feedstock and energy costs, exchange rates and hedging.

Pick n Pay Stores was another strong performer, albeit from a low base, staging a late-month recovery and gaining 24.8% MoM. The main catalyst for this bull run was the release of its 1H27 results on 26 October, which provided further evidence of progress in the Group's turnaround strategy under CEO Sean Summers. Pick n Pay reported a headline loss of R299mn from a loss of R439mn in 1H26, showing a c. 32% improvement. Turnover increased 2.4% YoY to R60.5bn while its headline loss per share narrowed to ZAc40.71 vs ZAc59.77 in the year-ago period. Improved trading performance across the Group, including a strong contribution from Boxer, also supported these results.

The SPAR Group (+20.4%) registered a strong share price recovery in October, with its upward trajectory running entirely counter to the broader retail sector's underperformance. The robust rebound follows a significant decline in its valuation earlier in the year, as boardroom instability, franchise guild disputes, and structural operational costs eroded nearly R10bn in market value.

SPAR was followed by Santam Ltd, Thungela Resources and British American Tobacco, which gained 19.9%, 16.2%, and 15.7% MoM, respectively. Santam's share price benefitted from financial services giant Sanlam's announcement that it intended to acquire the remaining eligible shares in the short-term insurer for R505/share in cash, a substantial premium to Santam's prevailing market price. Sanlam already held an effective 62.7% majority stake at the time of the announcement. Thungela outperformed much of the broader JSE mining sector, supported by firmer thermal coal prices. Richards Bay thermal coal traded near a one-year high during October, with tighter supply, stronger Asian demand and elevated gas prices providing support. These market conditions also benefitted other coal-exposed companies, including Exxaro Resources. British American Tobacco's defensive earnings characteristics, global revenue base, and dividend profile likely supported investor interest during a volatile month on the JSE.

Sirius Real Estate (+14.2% MoM), Telkom (+13.3% MoM), Tiger Brands (+12.6% MoM), and Exxaro Resources (+12.0% MoM) completed the top ten performers for October. Sirius benefitted from a positive operational update on 5 October, which reported an 11.3% increase in its rent roll, driven by acquisitions and organic growth, alongside capital moving into defensive dual-listed stocks. Telkom and Tiger Brands also recorded strong gains, although their share-price performances appear to have reflected a combination of company-specific factors and broader market activity. Exxaro bucked the wider mining-sector downturn, supported by firmer thermal coal prices, which improved the outlook for coal producers, and a solid interim dividend distribution during the month.

Figure 2: The 20 worst-performing shares in October 2026, MoM % change

Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital

October proved to be another difficult month for the broader resources sector, as a sharp correction across precious metals prices weighed heavily on local mining shares. Gold, platinum, and palladium all retreated as expectations of higher-for-longer global rates and shifting macroeconomic conditions prompted investors to reassess their exposure to precious metals (FTSE JSE Precious Metals and Mining Index -12.5% MoM). Simultaneously, select consumer-facing domestic businesses faced renewed selling pressure amid mounting concerns over household affordability and re-accelerating fuel costs.

Montauk Renewables (-24.1% MoM) ended October as the worst-performing share, following a particularly strong c. 67% gain in September. October's sharp decline represented a reversal after the company's recent share price recovery. Montauk specialises in converting methane emissions from landfills and other organic waste sources into renewable natural gas (RNG). Its share-price performance should be viewed in the context of the wider sell-off of alternative energy and secondary green resource counters as capital rotated into defensive dual-listed heavyweight stocks.

Impala Platinum (Implats; -16.6% MoM) was among the weaker-performing major mining shares. The company faced a perfect storm of broader commodity pricing corrections, compounded by the Group's latest operational update, released on 29 October. Refined and saleable 6E PGM (comprising platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium, and gold) production fell 8% YoY to 763,000 ounces in 1Q27. It attributed the lower output partly to scheduled processing maintenance and reduced smelting rates following a fatality at its Mineral Processing facility. Approximately 135,000 6E ounces of smelter throughput were deferred during the quarter, with the impact on refined production expected to extend into September and November. The Group also reported five fatalities during the period, underscoring the operational and safety challenges facing its operations.

Sibanye Stillwater (-15.7%) came under pressure amid the broad-based weakness across the resources sector. Its exposure to precious metals, particularly PGMs and gold, left the share vulnerable to the correction in underlying commodity prices. Company-specific operational and cost considerations also remain important to the investment case.

Sibanye was followed by Harmony Gold (-15.6% MoM), Tharisa Plc (-15.1% MoM), Northam Platinum (-13.2% MoM), and AngloGold Ashanti (-12.8% MoM). These declines reflected the massive, sector-wide rotation away from precious metals producers as gold and PGM prices retreated from elevated levels. Harmony and AngloGold were particularly exposed to the correction in gold, while Tharisa and Northam faced additional pressure from weaker PGM pricing. Tharisa's diversified exposure to both PGMs and chrome does provide some earnings diversification, but weaker prices for its PGM basket can still weigh on profitability. Northam, meanwhile, remains exposed to the challenges facing the PGM sector, including cost inflation and the significant long-term capex requirements to develop and maintain its deep-level mining operations. For gold producers such as Harmony and AngloGold, movements in the US dollar gold price, exchange rates and operating costs remain key determinants of earnings and investor sentiment.

Like their peers, South32, Pan African Resources, and African Rainbow Minerals (ARM), down 12.2%, 11.4%, and 11.3% MoM, respectively, were also among the weaker performers. Their declines came against the backdrop of a 10.5% MoM fall in the JSE Metals and Mining Index, although their respective commodity exposures and company-specific circumstances differ.

South32's diversified portfolio spans several commodities including aluminium, alumina, manganese, zinc, lead, silver and metallurgical coal. Its performance therefore reflects a range of commodity-price and operating influences rather than a single exposure. Unlike thermal coal and oil, which spiked on geopolitical conflict, base metal demand remains capped by sluggish global industrial data, weighing heavily on South32's multi-commodity pricing models.

Pan African Resources, which had enjoyed a strong run following improved production and financial performance, was also affected by the correction in gold prices. After a substantial rally, the share was vulnerable to a reassessment of valuations as investors took a more cautious stance towards precious metals producers.

ARM's share-price decline came amid broader weakness across the resources sector. The Group has committed to significant development and expansion projects, and shareholders have reacted with scepticism to the board's massive R16bn (c. US$1bn) capital allocation plan to revive the Bokoni PGM asset and restart the Nkomati open-pit mining and nickel operations. While they offer potential longer-term growth opportunities, their funding requirements and execution risks are important considerations for investors.

Figure 3: The 20 best-performing shares YTD, % change

Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital

Shifting focus to the YTD leaderboard highlights the overwhelming dominance of energy-linked counters, select industrial players, and specific logistics and tech shares. Reaffirming the persistence of these multi-month macro themes, seventeen of the 20 best-performing shares YTD were unchanged from their end-September rankings. Energy counters and diversified miners, including Sasol, Omnia, BHP Group, Thungela Resources and South32, continued to deliver strong YTD performances, despite the more recent weakness in precious metals shares.

Sasol (+172.6% YTD; discussed earlier) firmly retained the top position for a fourth consecutive calendar month, heavily capitalising on the global oil shock alongside a potent mixture of cyclical and company-specific tailwinds. Significantly higher crude-oil prices and elevated chemical prices have directly supported its refining and chemical businesses. At the same time, progress in reducing its legacy debt burden has contributed to a valuation re-rating.

Sasol was followed by Grindrod and Omnia Holdings, in second and third place with YTD gains of 67.0% and 54.1%, respectively. Grindrod has capitalised on SA's domestic rail and freight logjams by routing mineral exports through its hard-to-replicate infrastructure at the Port of Maputo in Mozambique. Fertiliser and explosives Group, Omnia (+23.4% MoM), delivered a 28% YoY increase in operating profit across its core agricultural and mining inputs businesses. A special dividend of ZAc280/share, followed by a proposed buyout offer valued at R21.8bn from Solar SA Investments, has contributed to a reassessment of its valuation.

Altron, Advtech, Thungela Resources, and PPC Ltd have recorded YTD gains of 43.4%, 43.0%, 42.3% and 41.9%, respectively. Altron has benefitted from its three-year "Transformative Growth" strategy. Under CEO Werner Kapp, the tech group has successfully divested loss-making operations and expanded its high-margin, digital platform and fintech businesses. This has supported stronger cash generation and enabled the declaration of a R500mn special dividend. While platinum and gold miners have slumped recently, thermal coal producers have thrived as higher international gas and oil prices triggered a global scramble for thermal coal, benefitting the likes of Thungela (discussed earlier).

PPC has sustained a massive upward re-rating as its multi-year operational turnaround plan bears fruit. Despite overall sluggish domestic growth, the company has protected its profit margins through strict commercial discipline, refusing to match value-destructive price discounting from rivals.

Karooooo Ltd (+36.2% YTD), Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (+35.3%), and diversified industrial Group KAP Ltd (+33.9% YTD) rounded out the YTD best-performing shares. Aspen management marked 2026 as a major financial inflection point for the Group. Aspen completed the multi-billion-rand divestment of its Asia-Pacific (APAC) business assets for R28bn in gross proceeds, providing additional balance-sheet flexibility, and expanded its presence in the GLP-1 weight-loss treatment market.

KAP Ltd continued its recovery following a challenging FY25. In its FY26 results, released in September, KAP showed a significant operational turnaround despite broadly flat revenue. Operating profit increased 28% YoY and net debt declined by R1.1bn, substantially exceeding its R500mn deleveraging target. Revenue remained stable at R29.6bn, but KAP's focus on operational efficiency and capital discipline drove meaningful margin expansion. HEPS rose 88% YoY to ZAc45.2.

Figure 4: The 20 worst-performing shares YTD, % change

Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital

The weakest performers YTD broadly reflect two themes: structural local headwinds and shifting global commodity cycles. The data point to particular pressure on consumer-facing domestic businesses and traditional precious metal or bulk commodity producers. Sappi (-51.8% YTD) replaced SPAR Group (-46.9% YTD, discussed earlier) as the worst-performing share YTD, with We Buy Cars (-42.7% YTD) ranking third. Sappi has faced a more challenging operating environment, while We Buy Cars has been affected by softer conditions in SA's second-hand vehicle market. High vehicle-financing costs have made purchases less affordable for consumers, weighing on demand and slowing inventory turnover.

Domestic retailers, such as SPAR and The Foschini Group (TFG; -41.1% YTD), have also struggled amid pressure on household budgets and rising operating and logistics costs. These challenges have limited retailers' ability to pass higher costs on to consumers without further affecting demand.

At the same time, PGM and bulk commodity headwinds continue to weigh on Sibanye Stillwater (-40.9% YTD), Kumba Iron Ore (-38.1% YTD), and Implats (-37.4% YTD; discussed earlier). Implats and Sibanye have also grappled with costly safety stoppages and deep-level maintenance issues, while Kumba remains restricted by ongoing Transnet rail capacity bottlenecks, limiting export volumes.

Naspers and Prosus have declined by 38.6% and 37.6% YTD, respectively. Both remain highly exposed to regulatory and macroeconomic developments in China, with weakness in their core technology investment; Chinese tech giant Tencent (-36% YTD) weighing on their share prices.

Retailer Clicks Group (-37.9% YTD) rounded out the ten weakest performers YTD. In October, Clicks reported a muted 4.4% YoY rise in diluted HEPS to ZAc1,421.7, while consensus forecasts were expecting c. 9% growth.