Coutts on SailGP's Dubai showdown: Who will make the Grand Final

The penultimate event of the season is fast approaching. Dubai on 21-22 November is one of the last opportunities for the three teams vying to qualify for Abu Dhabi's $2 million Grand Final to make it. Tom Slingsby's Bonds Flying Roos and Diego Botin's Los Gallos - both past champions - have already qualified. But the battle for the final spot is finely poised - with just six points separating Artemis in third, the United States in fourth and Emirates GBR in fifth.

Of the three teams in contention for the last Grand Final spot, Artemis is in the strongest position. Nathan Outteridge's Swedish outfit sit third on the season leaderboard, but they will be far from relaxed when racing begins, with the Americans and British snapping at their heels.

Despite being a so-called 'new team' this season, Artemis are packed with experienced SailGP hands. Their three key roles are filled by former Japan driver Outteridge, experienced wing trimmer Chris Draper and flight controller Andy Maloney, previously of Mubadala Brazil and the Black Foils. As a result, Coutts says, the Swedish outfit entered the league as a 'championship contender ready to vie for the top spots from the season opener'.

It's true that Outteridge's team has been one of the most consistent this season, but they 'can't afford to be too defensive', Coutts says. "They're going to have to start well and sail very well to qualify for the Grand Final and then be ready to race against the two top teams." Of the three Grand Final contenders though, Artemis are the team Coutts expects to see going head-to-head with the Australians and Spanish in the Grand Final.

Closest to Artemis are the United States, who have stunned fans this season - going from last in 2025 to become genuine contenders for a place in Abu Dhabi's Grand Final.

It's been a big turnaround for Taylor Canfield's team. Last season's boat-handling incidents and last-place finishes have given way to two event wins in light winds. A key improvement has been their starting performance in those conditions. Once ahead on a tight racecourse, the team are able to take advantage of the undisturbed air and stretch ahead.

But ahead of Geneva and fresh from their second win in Valencia, the team were served a setback when their driver was injured. Former Mubadala Brazil driver Martine Grael subbed in for Canfield. While there have been rumours the team is focused on Canfield's recovery, Dubai's crew list does not name a U.S. driver. "I suspect Canfield will be back for the last two events," Coutts says. "The U.S. are a contender for the Grand Final, especially if we get the predominantly light winds we've seen there before." At SailGP's new Abu Dhabi venue, Emirates Palace, however, light winds and smooth water are far from guaranteed.

Currently in fifth and six points from Artemis, Emirates GBR face a different challenge. Dylan Fletcher's squad started the season strong - winning Perth just two months after claiming the 2025 Season Championship. They backed up Perth with two second-place finishes in Auckland and Sydney, but then things went off the rails. In the last five events, the team hasn't finished in the top five once and they've only scored nine of the 50 season points available. Coutts describes this performance slump as 'puzzling'.

"They haven't performed well since the early part of the season and that's been a surprise to everyone," he says. He suggests the team have let 'their mistakes dominate their whole approach'. The key for them, he says, is 'getting the team back on a positive footing' and restoring 'the vibe they had onboard when they were racing well'. "It's definitely time for a reset.They've got nothing to lose now." The team's out-of-calendar training in Pensacola ahead of Dubai may provide the reset they desperately need.

While the battle for the final qualification spot remains finely balanced, the picture at the top of the leaderboard is rather different. Tom Slingsby's Bonds Flying Roos and Diego Botin's Los Gallos have established themselves as the clear frontrunners. Both teams qualified for the Grand Final with events to spare and are at 'the top of the tree in just about all conditions' - with the Australians overcoming past weaknesses in light air to 'rise to the top'.

Coutts says the quality of the fleet is much more even in steady conditions. However, in changeable, challenging conditions, he believes a bigger gap emerges, with the top teams consistently winning. Emirates GBR's patchy 2026 performance could just as well be attributed to 'Australia and Spain racing at a whole new level,' Coutts says. Artemis may have entered the league with a wealth of experience and high expectations, but so far, Coutts says they've been 'outclassed' by the quality of the Bonds Flying Roos and Los Gallos. "They've both stepped up massively this season and set a new benchmark," Coutts says. He pointed to the Spanish missing two events (Perth and New York) due to equipment damage and failure.

"Despite that, they still qualified with two events to spare," he says. The two teams have also dominated this season's prize money standings. "If either of them win the $2 million Grand Final prize pot, they'll set a new record for the most prize money won in a season," Coutts says. "I suspect that record may stand for at least a few years."

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