Oscars picks with Paul Gagliardi: Red carpet stories and what they really mean

Best Picture: Sinners

With a record number of nominations, Ryan Coogler's "Sinners" stands out as one of this year's most talked-about films, and one of Gagliardi's favorites. Beyond its exploration of Black identity and systemic oppression, the film's production model makes it especially significant.

"In a lot of ways, 'Sinners' was made outside the normal Hollywood studio system," Gagliardi says. "The film is a call to action for the entire industry."

Gagliardi highlights "Sinners" as a perfect example of how the Oscars are often a reaction to the tensions and economics of the film industry. Coogler's deal to gain ownership of the film after 25 years challenges long-standing studio norms, a move Gagliardi sees as pivotal. What awards "Sinners" wins may reflect the business side of Hollywood, and how it upholds its own studios, and not the artistry of the film itself - a decision Oscars judges must weigh. For Gagliardi, "Sinners" exemplifies why studying the Oscars matter: awards often reflect not just artistic merit, but how power and labor operate in Hollywood.

"The Oscars have always balanced traditional studio films with projects that challenge the system," he explains. "Sometimes an award tells us very little about artistic quality, but everything about how Hollywood works."

Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet

While Gagliardi suggests "Marty Supreme" could mark "Chalamet's year," he admits the category is wide open. With strong competition, the decision may revolve less around a single performance, but rather the feeling of who deserves an award after years in the film industry.

"Oftentimes, awards are given based not necessarily on the film itself, but on the actor's entire body of work," Gagliardi notes.

Like politics, Oscar races are shaped by campaigns, narratives and public sentiment. Gagliardi encourages students to examine past winners through this lens, asking what was happening culturally and how studios and agents framed their stars.

"The Oscars have the ability to determine what is of value in the film industry, but just how does it determine that value?" asks Gagliardi. "Many think the quality of film is based solely on its box office revenue, but that is rarely ever the case."

Gagliardi also points out that campaigning and politics have always been a part of the film industry, as the Oscars emerged out of labor unions and guilds in the 1920s. The Oscars, an exciting way to promote the business of cinema, builds narratives about art and actors that speak to audiences and embody the most important discourses of a generation.

Best Actress: Kate Hudson

Gagliardi's underdog pick comes with historical precedent. Hudson's performance in "Song Sung Blue," a Milwaukee-set story about a Neil Diamond tribute band, carries the kind of hopeful, sentimental tone the Academy has often favored.

He points to the 1977 Oscars, when "Rocky" triumphed over darker, politically charged films like "Taxi Driver" and "Network." While all are now classics, Gagliardi argues that Rocky's optimism resonated more deeply with audiences at the time and set a standard for the uplifting films people often associate with the 80s.

As the 2026 Oscars unfold, Gagliardi offers the same lesson he gives his classes: stay curious. While the night may seem like a spotlight for the best films or brightest actors, these defining moments reflect ongoing discourse about art, labor, politics and all pop culture. Whether marked by a scandal, a big political speech or a film being robbed despite critical acclaim, the Oscars will always grab attention and embody how film mirrors the world around us. So when you grab your popcorn and sit down for the upcoming awards, remember to dig a little deeper to appreciate how the Oscars shape pop culture and the entire history of film.