Follow the oil: The logic behind Trump’s first year, foreign policy chaos

It feels like a decade…But somehow, Donald Trump has only just clocked one year back in the White House.

From intervention in Venezuela to threats against Greenland, from trade tariffs against allies to rambling letters to other Heads of State, it's an extraordinary and growing list. Once your head stops spinning from the daily deluge of ridiculousness, you can step back and note a common thread running through the madness once you follow the money and the interests behind Trump's rhetoric.

While many were basking in the aftermath of New Year celebrations, US forces were descending into Venezuela to abduct a leader while leaving his regime very much intact.

While the US administration suggested an initial rationale of curbing the flow of drugs into the US, the facade soon dropped with Trump declaring control over resources, and in particular oil.

Images from Markus Mauthe's Canada Trip for his worldwide project to the climate turning points, as a part of his new climate project. Tar sand processing in Alberta near Fort McMurray, Syncrude ID Station, Mildred Lake.

"At least US$100 billion will be invested by Big Oil," Trump said ahead of a White House meeting with representatives of major oil and gas corporations.

Trump added that the US and Venezuela were "working well together" to rebuild the nation's dilapidated oil and gas infrastructure.

Despite claiming "US first", Trump's actions expose an intent to put the wealth and power of a tiny group of fossil fuel interests and ultra wealthy elites ahead of the wellbeing of US citizens, and the sovereignty and future of people in the countries where he meddles.

This is about who controls resources, who profits from them, and who pays the price.

Enbridge's Line 3 expansion under construction near Hardisty, Alberta.

Venezuela holds the largest proven crude oil reserves in the world and has long been a target of external pressure, sanctions and geopolitical interference. Trump's move is the latest intervention in a long pattern of strategic meddling.

The Trump administration has tried to portray the move as bolstering US energy security and weakening rivals, but the reality is very different.

US households are unlikely to experience any relief at the pump from these interventions. Global crude markets in 2025 already had a surplus of supply over demand, meaning oil prices were low despite a lack of production in Venezuela.

And even the most conservative estimates suggest that the Venezuelan oil industry requires investment of more than US$100 billion just to get back to the levels of decades ago.

In Trump's US, it is likely that taxpayers will be on the hook for these costs as Trump socialises the costs to subsidise the private businesses of his donors and supporters.

Funneling billions into fossil fuel infrastructure will deepen the global dependence on oil and gas that is driving the climate crisis and biodiversity loss, even when the science tells us there is no room in a safe future for new fossil fuel development.

The human costs of resource-driven foreign policy are profound. Military solutions tied to resource control are fundamentally incompatible with international law, human rights, and climate justice.

People around the world are already paying the price for decisions made in boardrooms and political offices far from their communities.

But as Trump pushes for control of Venezuela's oil, others are working towards an alternative vision: a world that moves beyond fossil fuels rather than fighting over them.

In April, Colombia will host the First International Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels, co-organised with the Netherlands, bringing together governments, Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendant communities and climate advocates to chart a just transition away from oil, gas and coal. The conference is not about who controls oil reserves, but who shapes our future.

On the 100th Day of the Trump Administration, we are in the streets of Washington D.C. to show the world and our leaders that we will resist attacks on our people, our communities and our planet.

The era of fossil fuels must end if we are to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of the climate crisis.

What we're seeing is not random chaos.

It's a clash between two very different visions of the future; one anchored in old power structures built on fossil fuel domination, and the other rooted in climate justice, and sustainable energy for all.

People and planet deserve a foreign policy that reflects their interests, peace, safety, economic security, and a stable climate.

Reclaim the moral compass: a call for courageous leaders

John Noel is a Senior Strategist with Greenpeace International.