Soft Landing

Moderator:
Rachelle Akuffo (Business News Anchor )

Panelists:
Vitor Gaspar (Director, IMF Fiscal Affairs Department)

Ms. Laura Alfaro (Chief Economist and Economic Counselor at the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB)

Mr. Marc Pinto (Global Head of Private Credit for Moody's Ratings)

Abstract

The latest update of the IMF's Global Debt Database shows that total global debt has almost stabilized above 235 percent of global GDP. This stability masks divergent trends: the rise in public debt driven by large and persistent fiscal deficits-including post-COVID legacy spending and higher net interest costs-is offset by a steady decline in private debt, primarily due to reduced household borrowing and subdued firm credit growth. The event will explore these contrasting debt trajectories and their implications for fiscal sustainability, economic activity, and financial stability. It will also discuss potential policy implications.

About the Database

The IMF's Global Debt Database (GDD) is a unique dataset covering private and public debt for virtually the entire world dating back to the 1950s. It differs from existing datasets in three major ways. First, the GDD adopts a multidimensional approach by offering multiple debt series, for instance by providing debt statistics at different levels of government for public debt, thus ensuring consistency over time. Second, it more than doubles the cross-sectional dimension of existing private debt datasets. Finally, there are regular checks to improve the quality of the data including through bilateral consultations with country officials and IMF country desks. The GDD also helps to enhance data transparency across countries.