2025 Q3 IAA Industry Report

Economic Summary

The U.S. economy regained momentum in mid-2025, with real GDP rising 3.8 percent in the second quarter following a small decline earlier in the year.¹ Growth was supported by resilient consumer spending and reduced imports, though business investment remained mixed amid ongoing tariff uncertainty.² Inflation edged higher in August, with prices up 2.9 percent year over year, led by shelter and food.³ While inflation has cooled since its post-pandemic peak, it remains above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target.

Labor market conditions were stable but showed signs of slowing, as payrolls rose slightly throughout Q3 and unemployment held at 4.3 percent.⁴ Businesses appear cautious in a "low fire, low hire" environment, prompting the Fed's September rate cut.⁵ Wages continued to grow moderately, up 3.7 percent over the year, though gains have become uneven across income levels, reflecting widening disparities in a technology-driven economy.⁶

Automotive Summary

The automotive industry is seeing consumption persist in the face of new challenges. New vehicle sales have remained resilient as electric vehicle sales in advance of an expiring tax credit at the end of September fueled dramatic rises for Ford and other large automakers.⁷ Total vehicle sales have swung over the year, but currently rest above early 2024 levels, despite an earlier slump as Q2 progressed after a March bump.⁸ Wholesale prices have remained in place per the Manheim Used Vehicle Index, with the typical depreciation trend of historical years seemingly absent in recent data.⁹ While typically a strong signal for the direction of retail prices further out, factors like the government shutdown and the consequential lack of data available to firms has called that assumption into question, with Cox Automotive expecting a trickier fourth quarter of 2025.¹⁰

Salvage Summary

Stainless steel and crushed auto-body prices have seen modest declines this season, and in the latter case this decline has been roughly similar among all regions of the United States.¹¹ In contrast, Metals such as Aluminum, Platinum, Palladium, and Copper have continued to see price increases, particularly in the cases of Platinum and Palladium, which each saw a large spike in September.¹² Some price increases among critical metals in the automotive industry have been attributed to investment patterns as the future of many of these markets remains uncertain and highly speculative.¹³

Section One: U.S. Economy

U.S. GDP Rebounds in Q2 largely due to Import Swings

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025, following a 0.6 percent decline in the first quarter.¹⁴ The rebound reflects slightly stronger domestic demand and fewer imports, which supported growth despite weaker investment and exports.¹⁵ Consumer spending on services outpaced goods, while business investment was mixed. Spending by firms on structures and housing fell, but investment in equipment and intellectual property rose, partly linked to ongoing adoption of AI-related technologies.^16,17 Overall, the first half of the year reflected volatility tied to tariff uncertainty and shifting trade patterns. The next two quarters will be important in determining whether growth can remain steady amid these headwinds.

Callouts:

2025 Q2 Real GDP Growth: +3.8% SAAR

Inflation Remains Above Federal Reserve's 2% Target

Consumer prices increased 0.4 percent in August after a 0.2 percent gain in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.¹⁸ Over the past year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9 percent, up slightly from 2.7 percent in July.¹⁹ Shelter costs remained the largest contributor, rising 0.4 percent, while food prices increased 0.5 percent and energy rose 0.7 percent, led by a 1.9 percent jump in gasoline.²⁰ Core inflation, excluding food and energy, advanced 0.3 percent for the second consecutive month, driven by higher prices for airline fares, vehicles, and apparel.²¹

Although inflation has eased considerably from post-pandemic peaks, it remains above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. The Fed continues to monitor these trends closely, particularly the potential for new tariffs to add upward pressure on prices and influence future policy decisions.

Callouts:

August Consumer Price Index (CPI): +0.4% MoM, +2.9% YoY

Labor Market Remains Steady as Job Growth Stalls

The U.S. labor market showed little change in August, with total nonfarm employment rising by 22,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent based on the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.²² Job gains in health care and social assistance were partly offset by continued losses in federal government employment and the energy sector.²³ For perspective, including the 15,000 worker decrease in August, federal government employment is now down 97,000 positions since January 2025.²⁴ The labor force participation rate remained steady this month at 62.3%, however this does represent a 0.4 percentage point decline for the year.²⁵

Employment growth has slowed steadily through 2025 as businesses hold hiring plans in check amid broader economic uncertainty. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently described current conditions as a "low fire, low hire" economy, with firms waiting for more clarity before making significant workforce changes.²⁶ The Fed's September rate cut was widely viewed as a response to growing downside risks from this softening labor market, which remains stable but cautious.²⁷

Callouts:

August Job Gains: +22,000
August Unemployment Rate: 4.3%

Wage Growth Holds Steady but Signs of Uneven Gains Emerge

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates that the average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm employees rose 0.3 percent in August to $36.53 and are up 3.7 percent over the past year.²⁸ Wages for production and nonsupervisory workers increased 0.4 percent to $31.46.²⁹ The average workweek held steady at 34.2 hours for the third consecutive month.³⁰ Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's wage tracker show median wage growth at 4.1 percent on a three-month moving average basis, indicating continued moderate gains in alignment with the estimates from the BLS.³¹

Recent data points to a widening gap in wage growth across income levels.³² While higher-wage workers are seeing pay increases above 5 percent, those in the bottom quartile are experiencing gains closer to 3.5 percent. This divergence highlights an emerging "K-shaped" dynamic in the labor market, where technological investments, particularly in AI, are fueling stronger earnings at the top while leaving lower-wage workers with slower growth.³³

Callouts:

Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% MoM, +3.7% YoY
Median Wage Growth (Atlanta Fed): +4.1% (3-mo avg)

Gas Prices Stable as Global Supply Outpaces Demand

Gasoline prices averaged $3.14 per gallon in the third quarter of 2025, down from $3.36 during the same period last year according to the Energy Information Administration.³⁴ Diesel prices averaged $3.76 per gallon, up slightly from $3.69 one year ago.³⁵ As of early October, the national average remains near $3.15 per gallon, supported by lower seasonal demand and the transition to cheaper winter-blend fuel.³⁶

Crude oil markets were relatively steady through the third quarter. Brent crude averaged around $68 per barrel in September, down slightly from July, as OPEC+ production increases balanced ongoing geopolitical tensions.³⁷ Despite regional risks stemming from the Israel-Iran conflict and renewed instability in Ukraine, global oil supply remains ample. Elevated refinery margins, particularly for diesel, reflect continued tightness in global distillate markets even as overall crude prices have stabilized.³⁸

With strong global supply, steady inventories, and seasonal demand softening, pump prices are expected to remain stable heading into the fourth quarter, barring major disruptions in the Middle East or Eastern Europe.

Callouts:

Q3 Avg. Gasoline Price: $3.14/gal
Q3 Avg. Diesel Price: $3.76/gal

Section Two: Automotive Industry

Surprising Summer Sales

The annualized rate of total vehicle sales has oscillated between 15-18 million units throughout 2025, swinging dramatically over short time periods. The current rate as of the most recent data in August sits at 16.4 million, noticeably higher than rates in early 2024, but still showing an uncertain trend and a fair amount below pre-pandemic highs.³⁹ In contrast, Cox Automotive observed a vehicle market on the upswing, thanks in part to record electric vehicle sales among the largest companies in the industry. Ford Motor Company alone saw an 85% rise in these sales for the month, solidifying Q3 as its best quarter as tax credits phase out at the end of September.⁴⁰ New vehicle sales volume as of data available in September was 1.25 million, a 3.5% increase year-over-year.⁴¹ However, even with the surprising resilience of consumption in Q3, Cox Automotive expects a 1.6% slowdown in new vehicle sales compared to Q2.⁴²

Callouts:

August 2025 Total Vehicle Sales: 16.4 million

The Used Vehicle Prices Hovering in "Neutral"

Used vehicle prices increased 2.0% from September 2024 to September 2025 per the Manheim Used Vehicle Index. This time of year has historically been a devaluation period for the market, but wholesale values have largely remained elevated with the seasonally unadjusted annual percent change for the month indicating a price increase, while the seasonally adjusted monthly change showed a slight decrease.⁴³ Due to a traditional lag between wholesale price and retail price trends of around six weeks, end consumers may see prices remain stable this winter.⁴⁴ However, that historical trend may not hold up this year for a number of reasons, including delays in government data releases as a result of the recent shutdown. The lack of data could drive dealers to focus on profit in individual sales as the broader market becomes less predictable.⁴⁵

Callout:

Manheim Index: +2.0% YoY

IAA Achieved Record-High Selling Prices for Insurance Autos in Q3

U.S. insurance auto sector average selling prices (ASPs) reached all-time highs, up 2.5% year-over-year on a 0.3% ACV decline. Quarter-over-quarter, IAA ASPs are up 3.7%.

IAA's record returns for Q3 were supported by continuous marketplace enhancements designed to increase buyer engagement and elevate sale performance.

• Two new features, (1) IAA AuctionNow® Jump Bid and (2) our "Close to Reserve" indicator completed their first full quarter in the market, driving more competitive bidding behavior during live auctions. These features help buyers stay engaged longer and increase the likelihood of an incremental bid. We also improved several core listing and negotiation tools that directly impact buyer confidence and transaction efficiency. Enhancements to our negotiation process have made post-auction sales faster and more transparent.

• The integration of IAA 360 View™ images and IAA Engine Starts™ videos into search results provided buyers with a richer, more accurate view of vehicle condition, encouraging higher participation and stronger bids.

• Additionally, the earlier posting of IAA Buy Now™ listings allowed motivated buyers to act quickly, resulting in faster turnover and increased returns.

Callout:

In Q3 2025, IAA ASPs rose +3.7% vs. Q2 and by +2.5% YoY.

Section Three: Economic Indicators of Automotive Salvage

Salvage Materials See Different Trade Impacts

In stark contrast to the previous three quarters, crushed whole auto-body prices dropped substantially in July and remained low throughout August and September, with a decrease measuring 4.5% over the quarter and 8.6% over the year. This decrease affected all regions of the United States and kept prices between regions relatively similar, at odds with historical data in which prices in the western United States were much higher than those elsewhere.⁴⁶ The Producer Price Index for Stainless Steel & Other Alloy Steel Scrap showed a 5.4% year-over-year decline as of the August release, hovering at slightly lower levels than were recorded earlier in the year, but still squarely in the regular range prices have remained in since late 2022.⁴⁷ Copper prices, in contrast, are expected to remain high throughout the next two years due to supply constraints and increased demand from electric vehicle production, though the potential for a pullback from Chinese buyers in response to high prices could complicate the outlook of the market.⁴⁸

Callouts:

Average Crushed Whole Auto Body Price: -8.6% Year-Over-Year
Stainless & Alloy Steel Scrap: -5.4% Year-Over-Year

Automotive Metal Appreciation Accelerates

Aluminum prices have continued a consistent rise since early April, indicating a recovery from a slump in March and have currently achieved the highest price per tonne recorded since the first half of 2022.⁴⁹ This price increase has been attributed to steel and aluminum tariffs implemented in 2025.⁵⁰ Platinum and Palladium have broadly parallel price trends this quarter, each starting August with a slow rise, followed by a large spike in September to end the quarter with a 29.9% and 18.0% quarterly increase, respectively.⁵¹ The recent surge in Platinum prices has brought the metal to its highest price in over a decade, breaking out of the more or less stable $800-1200 per troy ounce price range recorded from 2015 to early 2025.⁵² Palladium prices are less historically anomalous, only partially recovering from the 2023 devaluation.⁵³ Platinum price increases have been attributed to investment patterns, as alternatives to gold have also seen speculator investment amid geopolitical uncertainty.⁵⁴ There has also been a supply shortage for the metal, reinforcing upward price pressure from demand in the automotive market.⁵⁵ Palladium has been similarly affected by speculation trends, although it is seen as a much more obscure investment than platinum.⁵⁶

Callouts:

Platinum: +45.6% YOY
Palladium: +20.8% YOY

Section Four: Electric Vehicles

Strong Sales Extend into Q3

Electric vehicle sales hit a record 438,000 in Q3 2025 as buyers rushed to complete purchases before the $7,500 tax credit expired in late September.⁵⁷ The sales volume was up 40.7% over the quarter and 29.6% year-over-year, as electric vehicles achieved an impressive 10.5% market share of all vehicle sales in Q3.⁵⁸ Results for individual automakers were mixed, with companies like Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, and Nissan seeing flat or negative sales growth while the other major automakers saw large gains.⁵⁹ Notably, Tesla recorded an 8% year-over-year gain, the first time the company has recorded such a gain in 2025 and a possible sign that it is finding its footing, though not enough to prevent yet another market share decline to just around 40% of all electric vehicle sales.⁶⁰ Given that much of the electric vehicle sales were in advance of the now-expired tax credit, Cox Automotive forecasts a significant dropoff in the last quarter of the year.⁶¹

Callouts:

EV Sales (Year-Over-Year): +29.6%
EV Share of Total Sales (Q3 2025): 10.5%

Production Cuts in Critical Metals

Lithium prices recovered in July and August, settling at roughly where they had been a year ago in September.⁶² This reversed a downward shift in the second quarter of the year, marking that decline as a temporary dip rather than a resumption of the 2023 devaluation trend.⁶³ This fluctuation has been attributed to speculation patterns in the lithium market, as prices rose in response to the pausing of some mining operations in China, but stabilized after many investors used the opportunity to exit positions.⁶⁴ Cobalt prices, in stark contrast, remain approximately double what they were a year ago, despite being flat for most of the third quarter in a continuation of the trend established in the second quarter.⁶⁵ Most of the year-over- year price increase comes from spikes in early March, when an export ban by the Democratic Republic of the Congo was imposed in response to fears of a price decline, and in just the last few weeks heading into the fourth quarter.⁶⁶ The export ban was lifted in late September, but it will take time for newly permitted supply to trickle into the markets of large importers like China, keeping short-term price pressures active as electric vehicles continue to grow in presence around the world.⁶⁷ Nickel prices have continued to remain flat for the entire year, showing little change since the price of the metal last declined in late 2024.⁶⁸ Oversupply in that market has persisted since 2022, continuing to blunt the effects of recent and prospective production cuts in the developing world.⁶⁹

Callouts:

September Lithium Prices: -2.0% (YOY)
September Cobalt Prices: +51.4% (YOY)

Section Five: Looking Forward

U.S. Economic Outlook: Soft Growth and Shifting Policy Dynamics

Recent forecasts point to modest but uneven U.S. economic growth through 2026 as trade, labor, and policy conditions continue to shift. According to Deloitte, the baseline outlook for the US economy anticipates that elevated tariffs and slowing net migration will constrain consumer spending and labor supply, leading to GDP growth of around 1.4 percent in 2026.⁷⁰ Inflation is expected to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target due to higher import costs, while business investment is likely to be supported by continued spending on artificial intelligence and related technologies.⁷¹ At its September meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee projected 2025 GDP growth between 1.4 and 1.7 percent for the year, with a similar pace expected in 2026 near 1.85 percent, signaling expectations of softer near-term growth.⁷²

Deloitte also outlined potential alternative scenarios. A downside case assumes higher tariffs and weaker immigration, which could result in slower growth and a mild recession in late 2026.⁷³ An upside case envisions lower trade barriers and stronger migration, boosting demand and allowing for a faster easing of monetary policy.⁷⁴ Across all scenarios, the Federal Reserve is expected to proceed cautiously as it balances inflation control with emerging signs of labor market softening.

Automotive Uncertainty: The Future as Tariffs Trickle Down

Facing tariff bills in the billions, automakers have successfully lobbied the Trump administration for carve- outs, chiefly an executive order preventing tariffs from stacking upon one another.⁷⁵ JPMorgan estimates, accounting for variation between rates for imports from different countries and other variables, a combined $41 billion cost of tariffs on vehicles and parts in the first year of implementation and an average cost increase of $2,580 in cost per vehicle. Price increases are expected to largely avoid dealers and suppliers, mostly affecting consumers and automakers in even proportions. Some manufacturers have been considering 1-3% price sticker price increases, but many are holding off on price adjustments for the remainder of 2025, including Audi and Mercedes-Benz. Automakers have been facing severe margin compression as a result of efforts to keep prices stable, as although consumption has shown persistence in 2025, there are industrywide fears of a decline in consumer demand if sticker prices rise significantly.⁷⁶

Section Six: Canadian Commentary

The Q2 Contraction & the Future

The Canadian economy experienced a significant contraction in the second quarter, with an annualized decline of 1.6% as links to the US economy meant a particularly strong tariff effect. Exports to the United States declined by over 18%, while attempts to rebalance led to a 14% rise in exports to other countries in the second quarter.⁷⁷ However, the Canadian economy is still expected to grow 1.3% this year as trade effects stabilize.⁷⁸ Unemployment rates have not changed much since the middle of the year, but remain elevated at 7.1% for the general population with youth unemployment heightening to 14.7%.⁷⁹ However, a better-than-expected September jobs report has calmed some fears about the labor market.⁸⁰ Furthermore, the Bank of Canada has seen inflation remain below target in recent months, prompting a September 17th quarter-point cut to its interest rate, lowering it to 2.5%.⁸¹

Callouts:

Real GDP: -1.6%, annualized 2025 Q2

Section Seven: United Kingdom Commentary

Modest Growth and a Troubled Labor Market

The United Kingdom saw its GDP grow by 0.3% in the three-month period from April through June, a significant decline from the 0.7% rate seen in the first quarter of the year, but still faster than the 0.1% rate recorded at the end of 2024.⁸² Growth was already expected to slow, as Q1 numbers were influenced by a one-off export rush ahead of US tariff implementations.⁸³ The Bank of England still expects a modest 1.25% growth for the entirety of 2025, anticipating Q3 and Q4 reports to show reduced economic activity despite a quicker start to the year.⁸⁴ Inflation in August stood at 3.8% year-over-year, significantly above the 2% Bank of England target, and largely driven by areas such as food and housing.⁸⁵ Inflation has risen in the country since April. The bank expects the rate to fall back to the 2% target eventually, but has been re-evaluating further cuts to its current interest rate (now 4.0% after a recent cut from 4.25%) due to rising price concerns.⁸⁶ However, the Bank of England remains under pressure to cut rates due to troubling news in the labor market, as unemployment rose to another four-year high early in Q2, and it has continued to rise to 4.7% in May through July⁸⁷ as wage growth has also slowed.⁸⁸

Callouts:

Real GDP Growth: +1.25%, projected 2025
Unemployment: 4.7%, May-July 2025

Disclaimer:

This report uses the most recent data release for its market commentary. Given the government shutdown, data provided by the US government is currently delayed and therefore not included in this analysis.

IAA's ASP metrics are calculated based on:

Total Sale Price / Total Units Sold within the calendar quarter. The vehicles used for the ASP calculation are filtered by: Insurance Automobiles only; Excludes CATs, Cancellations, Fire Loss Types, Burn Damage Types, and Bulk Sales.

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