China’s Latest Soybean Purchase Agreement Falls Short of Replacing Lost U.S. Exports

Analysis by Philip Luck and Hugh Grant-Chapman

Published October 30, 2025

Beijing has reportedly agreed to buy more U.S. soybeans, but the scale of these purchases still falls short of historical averages.

1. As part of the latest round of U.S.-China trade negotiations, Washington announced that Beijing has agreed to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans over the remainder of 2025. Beijing has not yet confirmed that any such agreement has been reached. The announcement follows several months of near-zero U.S. soybean exports to China amid Chinese retaliatory trade measures.

2. Even if China fulfills the reported purchase commitments, U.S. soybean exports to China in 2025 would reach only 18.2 million metric tons. This would constitute a 32 percent decline since 2024-when annual exports reached 26.8 million metric tons-and would make 2025 the worst year for U.S. soybean sales to China since 2018.

3. In the past five years, China's share of U.S. soybean exports has remained roughly unchanged at about 53 percent. Unless the U.S. soybean industry diversifies into other markets, it will remain exposed to coercive Chinese economic statecraft in the future.

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