WARSAW, June 22, 2026-Artificial intelligence could increase Poland's real GDP by between 1.3% and 12.1% by 2035, according to a new World Bank Group report. The scale of the gains will depend on how quickly firms invest, how rapidly workers adapt, and whether policies enable the transition.

Navigating the Age of AI: Implications for Poland's Economy finds that AI could begin generating productivity gains in Poland within three years. The outcome, however, is not predetermined. Realizing those gains will require financing that supports AI investment at scale, a business environment that enables innovation, and labor markets that help workers move into emerging roles. The findings are based on the first country-level application of MANAGE-AI, a new macroeconomic model designed to assess AI's effects on growth, jobs, wages, and public finances under different scenarios.

"Poland is well positioned to harness AI as a source of productivity, better jobs, and economic growth," said Ary Naïm, World Bank Group Country Manager for Poland. "The challenge is not access to AI. It is using the technology productively-mobilizing investment in infrastructure and skills that underpin future growth, from digital networks to energy, water, and education, while ensuring workers can adapt and thrive as the economy evolves."

Only 8% of Polish firms currently use AI, suggesting considerable scope for adoption. However, productivity gains will depend less on access to technology than on firms' ability to use it effectively. Strengthening managerial capabilities, alongside a clear and predictable regulatory environment, will be critical to translating adoption into higher productivity. The business services sector-a major employer in Poland-faces some of the earliest effects of AI adoption, as routine tasks become increasingly automated and firms move into higher-value activities.

AI could create substantial economic value without fundamentally changing the structure of the Polish economy. Instead, its biggest impact is likely to be on how work is organized, with workers increasingly moving across occupations and tasks as firms adopt new technologies. Reskilling programs, active labor market policies, and transition support will play an important role in helping workers adapt before adoption accelerates. The capacity to adapt varies across workers by skill level, age, and gender, making targeted support essential for an equitable transition. Because the gains from AI tend to accrue to capital and do not reach all workers automatically, labor market, education, social protection, and fiscal policies will be critical to ensuring gains translate into higher living standards and better jobs.

While focused on Poland, the report offers insights for countries across Europe and beyond seeking to boost productivity, respond to demographic change, and ensure the benefits of AI-driven growth are broadly shared. It was developed through a broad collaboration involving the Government of Poland, academia, think tanks, and international partners.